Oops! I was looking at the wrong moving average envelope. Actually, the rate bounced off the bottom of the 24-hour price range exactly.
Beta Testing the New Nadex Trading Platform
- Thread starter expiated
- Start date
USDCAD is looking at bullish 48-, 24-, 16- and 6-hour trend lines. Consequently, it follows that the odds this current (significant) pullback in the 26- and 8½-minute baselines will turn into a full-fledged reversal in the intraday trend are likely to be relatively low. If such a development truly is improbable, one could argue that in this situation, it is reasonable to purchase a binary option call contract with a strike price of 1.2400, which is what I did. This is especially true given that dropping under 1.2400 would require price to crawl below the lower band of the 90-minute price range envelope, which appears to pretty much be a statistical impossibility.
UPDATE: The Fed Interest Rate Decision was just released at 11:00 AM here on the West Coast, at which point, USDCAD went crazy. (I thought I had glanced at the economic calendar for this morning and saw nothing significant on the list.) So, it will be interesting to see if price is back within the 90-minute price range envelope at expiry 45 minutes from now. At this point, it is unclear as to just how much of a monkey wrench this is going to end up throwing into my plans.
UPDATE: The Fed Interest Rate Decision was just released at 11:00 AM here on the West Coast, at which point, USDCAD went crazy. (I thought I had glanced at the economic calendar for this morning and saw nothing significant on the list.) So, it will be interesting to see if price is back within the 90-minute price range envelope at expiry 45 minutes from now. At this point, it is unclear as to just how much of a monkey wrench this is going to end up throwing into my plans.
Last edited:
Unless something drastic happens in the next hour, these additional seven contracts should recoup the rest of my loss and add a little bit of icing on top...
PHASE II
My Forex live accounts...
...are able to net respectful daily returns via balances that are a fraction of the amount I have in my Nadex demo account, and without incurring anywhere near the asinine degree of risk demanded by Nadex in-the-money binary option contracts.
Consequently, I am once again through with looking at this class of instruments. But, Nadex now has something I've not traded before that might be adaptable to my new approach to employing Numerical Price Prediction. So, next week I plan on taking a fresh look at Nadex weekly Knock-outs.
(It appears Nadex is not going to run another free demo contest like they did last year.)
My Forex live accounts...
...are able to net respectful daily returns via balances that are a fraction of the amount I have in my Nadex demo account, and without incurring anywhere near the asinine degree of risk demanded by Nadex in-the-money binary option contracts.
Consequently, I am once again through with looking at this class of instruments. But, Nadex now has something I've not traded before that might be adaptable to my new approach to employing Numerical Price Prediction. So, next week I plan on taking a fresh look at Nadex weekly Knock-outs.
(It appears Nadex is not going to run another free demo contest like they did last year.)
I never heard of Nadex. I looked at their website. Is this what they call a "bucket shop"?
U.S. dollar-Loonie Knock-outs at the start of the week...
So then, these four Knock-outs are twenty pips apart, and each of them spans 100 pips.
This looks much more sensible than the binary option contracts, assuming that I'm able to get the direction of the weekly trend correct. I can get a reward-to-risk ratio of about 7:3 as opposed to the typical abysmal in-the-money binary option contract reward-to-risk ratio of 1:9. True, I'm starting off in the red, but price need move only three pips in my favor before I start making money...
Also, I will be making about one dollar per pip, whereas in my OANDA account, I will be making about one dollar for every TEN pips trading 0.01 sized lots. On the other hand, I would only be risking about three bucks with OANDA instead of $30, and $100 would enable be to trade probably two additional currency pairs for a total of three, whereas with NADEX, I could only afford to trade one.
So then, these four Knock-outs are twenty pips apart, and each of them spans 100 pips.
This looks much more sensible than the binary option contracts, assuming that I'm able to get the direction of the weekly trend correct. I can get a reward-to-risk ratio of about 7:3 as opposed to the typical abysmal in-the-money binary option contract reward-to-risk ratio of 1:9. True, I'm starting off in the red, but price need move only three pips in my favor before I start making money...
Also, I will be making about one dollar per pip, whereas in my OANDA account, I will be making about one dollar for every TEN pips trading 0.01 sized lots. On the other hand, I would only be risking about three bucks with OANDA instead of $30, and $100 would enable be to trade probably two additional currency pairs for a total of three, whereas with NADEX, I could only afford to trade one.
Last edited: