I appears I will finally publish my book on trading via Amazon Kindle Direct. It took five chapters and 32 pages to fully cover Numerical Price Prediction, but to print the book as an 8½ by 11 inch paperback using premium color, which is what I plan to do, it has to be a minimum of 79 pages long. I'm therefore adding a chapter on trading using strategies in which I personally have no interest, such as position trading, and will continue supplementing the information already provided until the manuscript is at least 80 pages in length. This has led me to conclude that when it comes to position trading Forex, the key measures are the one-, two- and five-month baselines. Viewing the markets from this perspective suggests to me what I should be looking to do to make "big money moves," so I figure I might as well integrate this knowledge into my trading as long as it is available, which is what I am doing here.
Last week I formed the opinion that the best way to take advantage of looking at the Forex market from a position trader’s perspective when trading using the NADEX platform is to purchase Call Spreads set to expire as close to 24 hours as possible. I find this to be preferable over weekly Knock Outs because with Call Spreads, one cannot be stopped out of his or her positions—yet there is no danger of suffering an unlimited amount of loss, as there is when trading a traditional Forex brokerage account without stops.
In evaluating last week’s most profitable trades, the results once again confirmed that the gist of day-to-day price flow is best represented by the 48-hour baseline and
not the 24-hour baseline, as one might reasonably expect, given that this latter measure regularly evidences less significant price fluctuations that are often temporary in nature and totally unrelated to where the rate is ultimately headed.
Similarly, within a broader context, the one-week baseline is too fast a measure to convey the general direction in which price is headed if operating out of a buy-and-hold framework, where the lowest time frame that appears to be trustworthy in this role is the two-week baseline.
Accordingly, what I will be looking for next week are NADEX Call Spread trade opportunities where the faster/lower moving averages are reversing course to transition from advancing
against similarly aligned two-day and two-week baselines to flowing along in the same direction
with them.
At this time, the only pair that looks close to offering such a setup is GBBJPY. Its two-day baseline turned north four days ago, the two-week trend has been bullish ever since October 11, 2021, and price is currently located near the base of the 24-hour price range, which is neutral at the moment.
The time to buy will be if and when the two-, six- (and 16-) hour baselines are all sloping upward, which is not yet the case.
