Beta Testing the New Nadex Trading Platform

[expiated]

CURIOUS TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS

It looks to me like the structure of the four Daily Call Spreads are: 1) the next 250 pips above the open; 2) straddling the open—125 pips above and 125 pips below; 3) the next 250 pips below the open; and 4) straddling the open—225 pips above and 225 pips below...

The only possibilities for me would be the first and third scenarios (unless, for some strange reason, after the start of the week, a pair veers almost 100 pips in the direction opposite that which it is almost guaranteed to go eventually, at which point, the second scenario might become viable.

Typically, the maximum loss is around $25 and the maximum potential profit is around $225, though the chances of rates moving that much over the next 24 hours is practically nonexistent.

Still, all of this makes me curious...what if I were to purchase both the first and third Call Spreads ahead of the release of economic data likely to push a particular currency pair more than 100 pips in one direction or the other? How often would this be a profitable move, if ever?

The next chance I get, I plan to use my NADEX demo account to do this and see what happens.

 

[expiated]

20-MINUTE BINARY OPTIONS

Having at this point pretty much dissected NPP to the nth degree, I would love to use it to trade short-term Forex binary options. Unfortunately, the only thing Nadex offers me is five-minute options, which is a ludicrous time span. Or at least, it is when of the five contracts listed, only two are in any way "practical," and are likely to be positioned only four or so pips apart. How stupid! A pair can cover four pips in a couple of seconds, let alone five minutes.

So then, given the ridiculousness of that situation, and still wishing to apply NPP to shorter-term binary options, I am forced to turn my attention to the U.S. indices, where a more reasonable selection (i.e., 20-minute binary options) is available.

At the start of the period, it looks like a total of about 15 contracts are available spaced about 10 units apart (at least when it comes to the Wall St 30) for a grand interval of 150 units.

It looks like each contract goes up or down (on average) about three to five bucks as compared to the one above or below it...

It looks to me like the area of the chart provided by Nadex which falls within the interval covered by the 15 contracts is represented by the red and blue rectangle located on the right-hand side (I added the green and red horizontal lines, which are not plotted on the chart by Nadex).

If the basic math is the same when applied to all financial instruments, as I believe it is, then my main concern will be with reversals signaled by the 20- or 24-minute baseline; with the 2-, 4- and 8- to 8½-minute measures tracking fluctuations within this trend; and the 45- and 90-minute baselines revealing whether or not the 20-minute measure is aligned with the overall general intraday price flow.

My hope is to use a recognition of trends and typical price ranges to realize a return of seven to 20 bucks per contract every twenty or so minutes rather than having to wait three or four hours as I am having to do when purchasing Forex binary option contracts...

 

[expiated]

As stated yesterday, it appears that at the start of each 20-minute period, Nadex offers about 15 contracts spaced about 10 "units" apart with respect to the Wall St 30. However, when it comes to the US 500, that drops down to a single unit....

...and bumps back up to four units when it comes to the US Tech 100...

 

[expiated]

From my perspective, you don't have a bona fide reversal in the intraday trend until you see the 20- or 24-minute baseline initiate a new course in the opposite direction. This is the time to purchase a 20-minute in-the-money U.S. index binary option. (Abandon trading Nadex's Forex binary options, because three or more hours is too long to wait for expiry (to sit glued to your laptop) and allows too much time for an asset to adopt a new bias.)

The name of the game here is to adapt immediately to changes in market sentiment. You also need to know what to expect when price does the unexpected, and how to discern when rates are deviating from the norm—not to mention recognizing when they resume typical price action.

The 45-, 60- and 90-minute baselines confirm intraday reversals, but are usually too lagging to assist in entering positions in the most timely manner. The two-minute, four- to four-and-a-half-minute, and eight- to eight-and-a-half-minute baselines track fluctuations within the 20-minute (intraday) trend and will be of use when you go back to focusing on trading five- to fifteen-minute windows via PocketOption. (This would be a stupid thing to do with Nadex given that each and every contract costs $100.)

The three-hour temporal support/resistance levels also constitute relatively valid/reliable measures for confirming intraday reversals.

For discerning typical from abnormal price action, rely on the twenty-minute price range envelope at various deviations; the 60-minute dynamic (adaptable) price range at about 13% deviation; the 45-minute price range at 0.21% deviation; the 90-minute price range at 0.09% deviation; and the four hour price range envelope at 0.40% and 0.80% deviation.

 

[expiated]

Sunday / February 13, 2022

At 3:30 PM PST, I am able to trade Nadex binary options (with their ridiculous structures and contract selections). However, PocketOption and Deriv.com's "genuine" Forex instruments are not yet available.

UPDATE: It's 4:35 PM and the regular foreign currency pairs are now listed at PocketOption and Deriv, so I guess they became active at 4:00.

 

[expiated]

Once again, at 5:50 PM PST, PocketOption and Deriv.com are choosing NOT to offer a number of the currency pairs for trading.

 

[expiated]

20 MINUTE BINARY OPTIONS

According to information posted by businesswire on November 4, 2014, "The new 20-minute binary contracts will be listed between the hours of 9:40 AM and 4:00 PM EST, Monday through Friday and will only be available on the top US Index products."

So then, that translates to 6:40 AM to 1:00 PM here in Los Angeles.

I replenished my demo account with $10,000, and with the trades from the end of last week and the beginning of this one, I'm currently up almost 500 bucks. (The trades in my live account shall remain private.)

 

[expiated]

Last expiry for U.S. index binary options is at 1:15 PM PST.

So then, the temporal baselines serving as the backbone of Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) are universal in the sense that they do not vary across asset classes...with the key measures being: two days, eight hours, two-hours, 90 minutes, 45 minutes, 20 minutes and 8 minutes.

However, what does vary is the other key component of the system—typical price ranges—as one might expect.

For example, the normal four-hour price range among foreign currency pairs might span from 0.40% to 0.80% deviation, whereas the same range as observed when it comes to the U.S. indices is more like 1.50% to 2.50% deviation.

 

[expiated]

Indices Outside the USA:
Pacific Standard Time

FTSE 100 - 2 AM to 10 AM
Germany 40 - 2 AM to Noon
Japan 225 - 10:25 PM
China 50 - 11:55 PM

 

[expiated]

Commodities:
Pacific Standard Time

Gold - 7 AM to 10 AM
Silver - 7 AM to 10 AM
Crude Oil - 7 AM to 11 AM
Natural Gas - 7 AM to 11 AM