Australian housing bubble thread

[lovethetrade]

Australia's property market is unique because people want to live and own a property here, the obsession is a cultural phenomenon, so i'd be careful when making comparisons with previous housing bubbles.

I believe the biggest threat to the Australian property market is global warming, its already borderline unbearable during summer.

 

[i960]

Unless AUS is seeing wage growth matching those crazy housing growth numbers it's simply unsustainable.

C'mon folks it's clear as day the global economic situation were in. It's not a matter of if, its a matter of when. Just sit tight.

 

[vanzandt]

Unless AUS is seeing wage growth matching those crazy housing growth numbers it's simply unsustainable.

C'mon folks it's clear as day the global economic situation were in. It's not a matter of if, its a matter of when. Just sit tight.

Scroll down to Monkeyc's post on this page and look at some of those links.
CRAZY. https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...studio-had-a-buyer-in-four-days.307132/page-2

 

[xandman]

So, what's the best trade?

 

[m22au]

"Aussie Bank Stocks Ignore Property Bubble Risks
Bank stocks are rallying as CEOs shrug off risks from frothy home prices. There are many who disagree."
http://www.barrons.com/articles/aussie-bank-stocks-ignore-property-bubble-risks-1489122893

"Annual capital city growth trend reaches new high"
(data for February 2017)
https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/annual-capital-city-growth-trend-reaches-new-high

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[lovethetrade]

I swear the weather is going to be the catalyst that makes this bubble burst. The weather was so ridiculously hot this summer, investors and potential new home buyers are now starting to look elsewhere.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...ss-banks-rein-in-lending-20170313-guxd74.html

 

[i960]

I swear the weather is going to be the catalyst that makes this bubble burst. The weather was so ridiculously hot this summer, investors and potential new home buyers are now starting to look elsewhere.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...ss-banks-rein-in-lending-20170313-guxd74.html

Incredible the level of involvement/concern the RBA has in this. Both a moral hazard to rate normalization and overt nannyism.

To put it another way, RBA officials must have a lot of investment property they're worried about.

 

[m22au]

"House price rout on the cards, but the alternatives would have been bad too"
http://www.afr.com/news/economy/hou...tives-would-have-been-bad-too-20170303-gupuf1

Article from 3 March 2017.

The first chart in the article shows house price changes in the five biggest cities. Perth did well from 2005 to 2007 due to the mining boom. In the last 3 to 4 years, the biggest price gains have been in the two biggest cities: Sydney and Melbourne.

 

[lovethetrade]

Confidence in housing collapses to lowest level in 40 years: survey
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...level-in-40-years-survey-20170316-guzfz7.html

 

[m22au]

Recent data suggests that property in Sydney and Melbourne is still doing well:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-...ney-melbourne-continue-investor-surge/8313576
http://www.afr.com/real-estate/resi...perty-prices-rise-in-february-20170228-gunobh

Sydney +2.6% in February, +18.4% year-on-year
Melbourne +1.5% in February, +13.1% year-on-year

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Here are the March 2017 figures:

Source data:
https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/c...reasing-at-fastest-annual-rate-since-may-2010

Various articles reporting on the figures:
http://www.afr.com/real-estate/hous...est-rate-since-2010-corelogic-20170402-gvc4dt
(includes the Corelogic table)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ices-rise-most-in-7-years-amid-bubble-concern
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...surges-to-sevenyear-high-20170402-gvc3d3.html
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...-it-wasnt-just-in-sydney-and-melbourne-2017-4


Sydney +1.4% in March, +18.9% year-on-year, median $805k
Melbourne +1.9% in March, +15.9% year-on-year, median $605k
Combined capitals +1.4 in March, +12.9 year-on-year, median $585k

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