Australian housing bubble thread

Believe or not?

Mining boom not even halfway over: Emerson

http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/po...even-halfway-over-emerson-20120826-24u29.html

Q

Employment Minister Bill Shorten said his department projected another 100,000 jobs would be created in the mining sector over the next five years.

‘‘I don’t think that the contribution that mining’s going to make in jobs and economic output for Australia has at all peaked,’’ he told the Ten Network.

But he noted the services sector was likely to create some 800,000 jobs in the same period, most of which would require post-Year 12 qualifications.

UQ
 
property may do well in au but not everywhere.

sydney and melbourne where lives nearly half of population have no strategic position, unlike singapore for example. away from all economic routes. not sure why large au cities are not built in north ?!?!?

add to this mix outsourcing trend where city jobs are shipped out of au at rather quick rate and prognosis for these 2 cities is grim.

and lets not forget (lack of) water for this amount of people. they can't sort out even murray river. next dry period may get nasty and people will realise and experience old truth that availability of water is THE ultimate limiting factor for number of people in area.
 
http://www.economist.com/node/21560886

"SINCE 2008 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, America’s two housing-finance giants, have been on life support, spared from insolvency by an intravenous drip of taxpayer cash. Lately, however, the companies have shown signs of life: earlier this month both reported their biggest profits since being forced into “conservatorship” four years ago (see chart)."
 
Quote from white_goodman:

you seem to have forgotten the mass flooding weve had, water supply aint an issue as much as Tim Flannery would love it to be
More...

draught will be back and water costs up in a big way. 1000's of pools will add to water usage and misery. i am talking about 2 major cities and unsustainability of number of habitants that are added to support property prices.

hedge funds did their calcs.

http://www.nswalp.com/media/news/no-win-for-taxpayers-in-desalination-plant-sale/
 
IMF warns on global recession

AUSTRALIA'S economic prospects have been downgraded by the International Monetary Fund, as it warned the world economy risked plunging into recession unless European and American leaders acted swiftly to address their countries' debt woes.

With growth slowing around the world, the fund yesterday said the risk of another global crisis had grown significantly in recent months.

The fund's forecasts for world economic growth were cut for the second time this year, to 3.3 per cent for 2012 and 3.6 per cent for 2013.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/imf-warns-on-global-recession-20121009-27b8k.html
 
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...around-confirmed/story-e6frg90f-1226572288840
"
German economic turnaround confirmed

From: AAP
February 07, 2013 1:41AM


GERMANY appears to have put the worst of the crisis behind it, analysts say, with industrial orders on the rise, lending weight to the recent sharp gains in confidence indicators.

Industrial orders increased by 0.8 per cent in December compared with November, after falling by 1.8 per cent the previous month, the economy ministry said in a statement.

Analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires had been pencilling in a gain of 0.7 per cent for December.

"There was an above-average volume of big-ticket orders," the ministry explained.

And while domestic orders declined by 1.2 per cent, orders from abroad rose sharply by 2.4 per cent, it calculated.

By sector, incoming orders for semi-finished goods fell by 3.6 per cent month-on-month in December, while orders for capital goods and consumer goods increased by 3.6 per cent and 1.7 per cent respectively.

Using a two-month comparison to iron out short-term fluctuations, orders rose by 0.5 per cent in November and December combined compared with the preceding two months.

"At the end of last year, industrial orders picked up again, which bodes well for the overall trend in orders for the current year," the ministry said.

"Together with the improvement in business confidence, early indicators point to a end to the current phase of industrial weakness in the foreseeable future," the ministry said.

Analysts shared the ministry's confidence, especially as it appears to back up the recent strong rise in industrial sentiment indicators.

"All in all, German factory orders are back on to a positive trend in the fourth quarter of last year, which should continue in 2013," said Thomas Harjes at Barclays Research.

"This bodes well for our forecast of a swift recovery of economic activity currently underway in Germany, also reflecting a robust expansion again of industrial activity," the analyst said.

Commerzbank analyst Ralph Solveen said that the underlying upward trend in orders since last autumn "supports our expectation that the German economy has achieved a turn for the better. After a weak fourth quarter of 2012, we therefore assume it already returned to noticeable growth in the first months of this year," he said."
 
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