Australian housing bubble thread

[m22au]

How can one capitalize on it?

by shorting Australian banks

 

[i960]

SLF would probably have some pretty significant correlation too.

 

[m22au]

SLF would probably have some pretty significant correlation too.

yes it probably would

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/quote/SLF.AX

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[Nine_Ender]

by shorting Australian banks

You said the same thing in May 2010 on post one of this thread. Even if you failed to enter into any shorts ( many of which would have lost serious money on this idea ), it would have been a distraction to taking much better investments at that time. Like going long US equities or ironically buying Australian property in the cities you claimed were in a bubble.

 

[m22au]

You said the same thing in May 2010 on post one of this thread. Even if you failed to enter into any shorts ( many of which would have lost serious money on this idea ), it would have been a distraction to taking much better investments at that time. Like going long US equities or ironically buying Australian property in the cities you claimed were in a bubble.

You'll be pleased to know that I didn't short any Australian banks in 2010 and I did indeed by US equities instead.

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[m22au]

Corelogic monthly prices
https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/type?q=hedonicIndex

03 July 2017
"Capital City Dwelling Values Rise 0.8% Over June Quarter"
https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/capital-city-dwelling-values-rise-0-8-over-june-quarter

Table of data from the above article:
https://www.corelogic.com.au/resources/pdf/indices/indices-release/2017-07-03--indices.png

Sydney +2.2% in June, +12.2% year-on-year, median $880k
Melbourne +2.7% in June, +13.7% year-on-year, median $675k
Combined capitals +1.8 in June, +9.6 year-on-year, median $635,000

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[m22au]

01 March 2018
"National Housing Values 0.8% Lower Since Peaking In September Last Year"
https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/national-housing-values-08-lower-peaking-september-last-year

Table of data from the above article:
https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-03/2018-03-01-indicesresults.png

Sydney -0.6% in February, -0.5% year-on-year, median $880k
Melbourne -0.1% in February, +6.9% year-on-year, median $723k
Combined capitals -0.3% in February, +2.0 year-on-year, median $655k

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[m22au]

03 September 2018
"Housing Correction Deepens With Dwelling Values Falling Across Most Capital Cities"
https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/augusthomevalueindexresults

Table of data from the above article:
https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-09/20180903_cl_home_value_index_sep.jpeg

Sydney -0.3% in August, -5.6% year on year, median $855,287
Melbourne -0.6% in August, -1.7% year on year, median $703,183
Combined capitals -0.4% in August, -2.9% year on year, median $646,020

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[m22au]

01 October 2018
"Australia’s Housing Correction Marks Its Twelve Month Anniversary With Values Down 2.7% Since Peaking In September Last Year"
https://www.corelogic.com.au/septemberhomevalueindexresults

Table of data from the above article:
https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/...01_corelogic_home_value_index_oct_1_table.jpg

Sydney -0.6% in September, -6.1% year on year, median $847,948
Melbourne -0.9% in September, -3.4% year on year, median $697,457
Combined capitals -0.6% in September, -3.7% year on year, median $642,531

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[PistolPete]

by shorting Australian banks

And how does one deal with the carry on that given the huge dividend banks pay ? Risk free you can get 3% and the net dividend on banks is close to 6% annually . So you are minimum 9% behind annually . They dont call shorting Aust banks the widow maker for nothing