are we in a recession?

did we start a recession?

  • yes

    Votes: 18 33.3%

  • yes but market will still go up

    Votes: 24 44.4%

  • no

    Votes: 12 22.2%
  • Total voters
    54
i have to say being a patriot and a fool can be very similar. i have learned in the past that markets can turn on a dime that's why i am watching big stocks. when you see these big gap downs like in google some say its a buying opportunity and others see a sign. the greatest lesson i ever had was the internet bubble i learned a lot from it. if you think the fed can totally back up the markets you might be proved right. i see the fed as being desperate. i feel they see something very bad around the corner otherwise there actions should be criminal.

i think the US can lead too but i don't think leading translates into GDP and higher stock prices. i think you learn about someone or something on how they handle the bad times because anyone can enjoy the good times.

Quote from vicirek:

This is a very good point often missed in the heat of discussion and past history shows that the US can lead in times of crisis.
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Quote from brokerboy:

i have to say being a patriot and a fool can be very similar.
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No doubt about it. But the solution might be completely unexpected because modern global economics and finances are evolving. Economic scenarios not necessarily can be based on today's doom and gloom or resolved based on past and current experiences.

Economy went into abstract trajectory with high finances, service based economies and global trade. Old measures of so called GDP, valuation of work, goods and services might not offer valid reference points. Same applies to currencies, stocks and commodities.
 
Quote from vicirek:

No doubt about it. But the solution might be completely unexpected because modern global economics and finances are evolving. Economic scenarios not necessarily can be based on today's doom and gloom or resolved based on past and current experiences.

Economy went into abstract trajectory with high finances, service based economies and global trade. Old measures of so called GDP, valuation of work, goods and services might not offer valid reference points. Same applies to currencies, stocks and commodities.
More...

I agree for the most part. It's near impossible to find a historical precedent, so arguing possible scenarios is somewhat futile. The Fed is in unchartered territory, just like the economy.
 
we are the country that made the movie pretty woman so maybe you can dress up a whore and package it to marry a billionaire you could be right. i don't no the answers i can only draw from my past market experiences and use that judgement.

the best part is everybody is confused that's why its a good exchange of views.

Quote from vicirek:

No doubt about it. But the solution might be completely unexpected because modern global economics and finances are evolving. Economic scenarios not necessarily can be based on today's doom and gloom or resolved based on past and current experiences.

Economy went into abstract trajectory with high finances, service based economies and global trade. Old measures of so called GDP, valuation of work, goods and services might not offer valid reference points. Same applies to currencies, stocks and commodities.
More...
 
Quote from brokerboy:

i have to say being a patriot and a fool can be very similar. i have learned in the past that markets can turn on a dime that's why i am watching big stocks. when you see these big gap downs like in google some say its a buying opportunity and others see a sign. the greatest lesson i ever had was the internet bubble i learned a lot from it.
More...
Exactly....and a lot of traders kept buying as it became a "bargain"....and they lost.
You have to ask yourself: was Friday's action indicative of a "key reversal" day ?
 
Quote from syswizard:

Exactly....and a lot of traders kept buying as it became a "bargain"....and they lost.
You have to ask yourself: was Friday's action indicative of a "key reversal" day ?
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we like the fundamenatals, just not the price. Too long too hard too high.

If the fundamentals stay the same, we will like it more 10 or even 20% lower.

We're not looking for a trade, just a good investment.
 
in otherwords, I have plenty of money invested in the stock market, and not interested in adding any more at this time, but not worried yet.
 
what fundamentals? i am lost when you say you like stocks more 20% lower because isn't the idea of fundamentals to like lower PE's in general? i don't know where the markets are going but the economics are not pretty. we printed money and gave it to banks. the money is something the tax payer will need to pay at some point. the real reason we need to keep rates low is because we are controlling our debt interest. its not for investment reasons its for the countries self preservation and to think stocks can go higher if the country falls apart does not sound real. they are digging a massive hole and praying for a miracle. if america was a business would you buy into it?

Quote from oldtime:

we like the fundamenatals, just not the price. Too long too hard too high.

If the fundamentals stay the same, we will like it more 10 or even 20% lower.

We're not looking for a trade, just a good investment.
More...
 
Be as careful as humanely possible with counter parties, have a small stake stashed to move to -- reboot capital -- and assume that the trader mentality will prove valuable in the midst of chaos.

Most important of all is to remember the powers that be can keep the ball rolling much longer than seems possible so bailing too early must be avoided. That said, if your gut tells you the party is really over don't go looking for your coat ... just walk out decisively. It's not hard to tell when it is over ... but what is hard is to believe it. When you hear the bell you need to believe that gut or it will cost you dearly.


Quote from achilles28:

+1

Any bug out plans?
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