are we in a recession?

[oldtime]

Quote from Swan Noir:

Be as careful as humanely possible with counter parties, have a small stake stashed to move to -- reboot capital -- and assume that the trader mentality will prove valuable in the midst of chaos.

Most important of all is to remember the powers that be can keep the ball rolling much longer than seems possible so bailing too early must be avoided. That said, if your gut tells you the party is really over don't go looking for your coat ... just walk out decisively. It's not hard to tell when it is over ... but what is hard is to believe it. When you hear the bell you need to believe that gut or it will cost you dearly.

if you need any food or shelter, just knock on my door. I usually just keep to myself, but I am always willing to help someone in need.

 

[Specterx]

Quote from brokerboy:

are we in a recession?

Yes but the difference between recession and 'recovery' is likely to be minimal. Pay hasn't been rising anyway and job losses probably won't be that severe. Corp profits will take most of the hit.

 

[syswizard]

Quote from Specterx:

Corp profits will take most of the hit.

Yes, but that will be the "last shoe to drop" as unemployment rates will likely increase.
Thus: Are we in a recesson ?
Answer: NO.

Will we be in a recession by the end of 2013 ?
Answer: YOU BET (or I'll bet).

 

[Covertibility]

<IMG SRC=http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?&id=ALTSALES,UNEMPLOY&scale=Left,Right&range=Max,Custom&cosd=1976-01-01,1976-01-01&coed=2012-09-01,2012-09-01&line_color=%230000ff,%23ff0000&link_values=false,false&line_style=Solid,Solid&mark_type=NONE,NONE&mw=4,4&lw=1,1&ost=-99999,-99999&oet=99999,99999&mma=0,0&fml=a,-a&fq=Monthly,Monthly&fam=avg,avg&fgst=lin,lin&transformation=lin,lin&vintage_date=2012-10-22,2012-10-22&revision_date=2012-10-22,2012-10-22>

Watch the auto sales. I would post other indicators but they're subject to revisions.

Merkel hast zee elektion next year, unt zee fraulein vill not vunt to be unemployed.

 

[syswizard]

Nice chart - thanks.
I would say that just by looking at the data, that car sales are about to level-off given the weak employment recovery.
In fact, they may go down in 2013.

 

[Covertibility]

Wrong data on last chart

<IMG SRC=http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?&id=UNRATE,ALTSALES&scale=Left,Right&range=Custom,Max&cosd=1976-01-01,1976-01-01&coed=2012-09-01,2012-09-01&line_color=%230000ff,%23ff0000&link_values=false,false&line_style=Solid,Solid&mark_type=NONE,NONE&mw=4,4&lw=1,1&ost=-99999,-99999&oet=99999,99999&mma=0,0&fml=-a,a&fq=Monthly,Monthly&fam=avg,avg&fgst=lin,lin&transformation=lin,lin&vintage_date=2012-10-22,2012-10-22&revision_date=2012-10-22,2012-10-22>



Same thing but maybe this is a little bit clearer:

<IMG SRC=http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?&id=ALTSALES,UNRATE&scale=Right,Left&range=Max,Custom&cosd=1976-01-01,1976-01-01&coed=2012-09-01,2012-09-01&line_color=%230000ff,%23ff0000&link_values=false,false&line_style=Solid,Solid&mark_type=NONE,NONE&mw=4,4&lw=1,1&ost=-99999,-99999&oet=99999,99999&mma=0,0&fml=a,a&fq=Monthly,Monthly&fam=avg,avg&fgst=lin,lin&transformation=lin,lin&vintage_date=2012-10-22,2012-10-22&revision_date=2012-10-22,2012-10-22>

Excluding the 2001 recession, it appears that auto and light truck sales lead the unemployment rate; auto sales bottom before the rate tops and vice versa.

 

[S2007S]

the recession didnt end in 2009, it still the same one from when the credit crisis began!

 

[syswizard]

Quote from S2007S:

the recession didnt end in 2009, it still the same one from when the credit crisis began!

Exactly. The politicians SAID it ended.

 

[toc]

Who care if recession ended in 2009 or later. The point is, whoever takes the White House, gets going with one minded agenda to stall and start to reduce the debt pile up on the US balance sheets. Hard pills will have to be taken and fancy words like jobs creation, growth and military supremacy will have to be sidelined for a while.

The main question is that of the sincerity here, a real desire to improve one problem that is the root cause of all the financial sheet mess.

 

[ammo]

Quote from toc:

Who care if recession ended in 2009 or later. The point is, whoever takes the White House, gets going with one minded agenda to stall and start to reduce the debt pile up on the US balance sheets. Hard pills will have to be taken and fancy words like jobs creation, growth and military supremacy will have to be sidelined for a while.

The main question is that of the sincerity here, a real desire to improve one problem that is the root cause of all the financial sheet mess.

would that be gs ,morgan, and jpm,creators of the off shore cds and the shambles of a banking /fraud system ,or just the fed and the debt