Are trends just self fulfilling propecy?

[Scataphagos]

If everyone is trained to recognize same patterns then everyone react to them same.

Yes to a degree. It isn't "be all and end all", but it's a significant factor in market movement. EVERYBODY is watching the same charts... when they act in majority it often becomes "monkey see, monkey do". There are patterns as to how they "usually behave". That's why traders need to know Price TA.

 

[Scataphagos]

I have studied what happens when retail trades, they on average lose

Retail loses primarily because they are not knowledgeable... not properly educated.(IOW... they are stupid but don't realize it.) If they learned "Price TA" and executed with discipline, they'd soon be driving the super car of thier dreams!!

The price charts don't lie. It's all "right there, in front of your eyes". Learn to read it like reading a road map. The road map doesn't lie... it tells the EXACT route. Price TA shows THE START (and later continuation, if applicable) of the current route.. A HUGE EDGE!! (beyond the "start", one has to "play it by ear"... they ain't going to hold the hold the whole thing out to you on a silver platter, you know.)

I can't do a big enough bold for how important this concept is...

The market chart shows the change from buying-to selling and selling-to-buying. As a trader, you need to recogize this and get your money on the right side of what the market has shown. Every other consideration you have is irrelevant!*

Price TA works on ALL TIME FRAMES... ON ALL MARKETS.... equities, bonds, commodities, even mop squeezers. !

* Price TA distains the notion of "volume anything". At worst, volume is misleading. At best, it's always "late" and can be misleading. Important/swing highs and lows can occur on low or high volume, yet have zero significance. Traders mistakenly believe "volume confirms",... in spite of conventional belief/rhetoric, IT DOES NOT!! When it comes to "volume", FUGGETABOUTIT!!

 

[murray t turtle]

The entire notion of AI is to more quickly and efficiently analyze the established learning curve. ........... and repeat this as the learning curve became ingrained. A kind of optimized brain washed analytical system.

%%
True; I like to study trends.
Glad I looked up the M Websters definition of brainwashing which includes ''force ...propaganda''
LOL, not the trends I trade + invest in
But M websters also included ''salemanship'' so good warning on a clean washed brain LOL

 

[mute9003]

but price does lie. When its being manipulated.
Chart lies
There are traps in charts
There are chatroom pumps and failed breakouts

 

[murray t turtle]

Yes to a degree. It isn't "be all and end all", but it's a significant factor in market movement. EVERYBODY is watching the same charts... when they act in majority it often becomes "monkey see, monkey do". There are patterns as to how they "usually behave". That's why traders need to know Price TA.

%%
Monkey see, monkey do pattern, I will watch for that one .
And traders, investors + elephants plan + some times do.Good patterns sometimes.
Back to trend study......

 

[engineering]

IMO it's a waste of time to try and figure out which opinion will drive short term price.

You're better off trying to figure out "will company X be successful".

At least in that scenario you're dealing with objective reality instead of trying to guess what's in someone else's head.


"In the short term the stock market behaves like a voting machine, but in the long term it acts as a weighing machine."
-Graham

 

[vanzandt]

someone else's head.


"In the short term the stock market behaves like a voting machine, but in the long term it acts as a weighing machine."
-Graham

As WS adages go, that's always been one of my favorites. Because it's true lol.

 

[tomkat22]

but price does lie. When its being manipulated.
Chart lies
There are traps in charts
There are chatroom pumps and failed breakouts

All that comes with the territory if you're gonna trade stocks. You just have to learn to deal with it.

 

[Scataphagos]

but price does lie. When its being manipulated.
Chart lies
There are traps in charts
There are chatroom pumps and failed breakouts

"3 out of 4 wrong".

1. As far as "manipulated stocks", you're playing a fool's game in low priced stocks.
2. Traps... false breakouts are not "traps", but strong, positive signals unto themselves in larger stocks.
3. Forget "chatroom stocks"... trade big, liquid names not subject to manipulation.

Don't be a dope!

 

[Handle123]

so "hypothetically speaking" if say bunch of hedgefunds would promote literature about "how to trade in stock market" regardless of how the trends originated in the distant past.
wouldnt those "market makers" and other big institutions benefit from lets say the hurd of retail traders who read same books and respond to same stimuli on the chart like an ascending triangle for example.
so all the institutions have to do is to load up the shares, then create the pattern where people would roll in and play out the pattern as close as they can to what they saw in the book while the institution unloads the shares into those buyers.

which would mean that the trading legends of the past are basically the people who found an inconsistency in the market and exploited that until it became widely known and absorbed by general market and did not work anymore.

Most would think they get exploited and become known, but for whatever the reason, it keeps working for me past 32 years I been trading these patterns. And they along with risk management are my edge.

Any chance you can draw a picture?
I don't grasp how volume starts as a countertrend pattern.
Who is creating that (whatever it is) - the dumb money or institutions?

That is not going to happen. I am not a fool.
But what I will say, most humans think within a box cause 99% of our beliefs of who we are like being in a happy place and brains make it difficult to "stray" outside of their comfort zone. Most traders are going for huge profits whereas I aim for consistency and consistency increases size for day trading, but long term, hedging needed looking for home run profits.