Are trends just self fulfilling propecy?

I'm not sure if there are any pension, hedge, mutual, or sovereign wealth fund managers in here but if so, please excuse this comment.

Small traders like us can give the trend a little bump at the beginning, and also a big blast at its end as our stops and / or FOMO are ignited. But it's buy programz that make the sustained trend.

And the biggest one is QE.

I miss the days of POMO, when they would literally publish a schedule of how much money they were going to pump into the system each day. :D
 
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It can be a mix of both! :rolleyes:
On one hand, trends can feel like self-fulfilling prophecies because when a lot of traders believe a trend will continue, their actions (buying or selling) can actually make it continue. It’s like everyone’s expectations end up driving the trend.

On the other hand, trends are also driven by real factors like economic data or company news. So, while the collective mindset can influence trends, there are solid reasons behind why they move in the first place.

It’s a bit of both mental and tangible factors. What’s your take on it?
 
The continuing trend, a thunder storm, and the Theory of Reflexivity all have one thing in common:

A chain reaction where motion creates even more thrust, until the climax point when it all explodes, then runs out of fuel.

Reason gives way to jealousy, watching everyone else get rich without you.

Jealousy leads to coveting, then bypassing your better intentions, and finally entering temptation.

Good on you if you get out in time, but beware the addiction of easy money! No one can do it just once.....
 
i should correct myself there

its a flow of multiple self fulfilling prophecies
flowing together based on what books we read.

we read books and learn a "strategy" x1000000 participants for each strategy
overlay that onto live market

each group of traders sees their triggers to buy and sell and hodl
if you remove the programmed behavior of traders the market will become random because there will not be any trends.
trend requires 10000s of traders to see and anticipate same move.
without that trends would not exist.
aka groupthink hurd mentality.
and why only less than 10% of people are profitable.
because they can process and anticipate hurd movements

thats my theory so far.
 
mute9003 said:
i should correct myself there

its a flow of multiple self fulfilling prophecies
flowing together based on what books we read.

we read books and learn a "strategy" x1000000 participants for each strategy
overlay that onto live market

each group of traders sees their triggers to buy and sell and hodl
if you remove the programmed behavior of traders the market will become random because there will not be any trends.
trend requires 10000s of traders to see and anticipate same move.
without that trends would not exist.
aka groupthink hurd mentality.
and why only less than 10% of people are profitable.
because they can process and anticipate hurd movements

thats my theory so far.
More...
The hurd arr hodlers?
 
mute9003 said:
They are hodlers because they are stuck in positions yes
More...
'Hidlers' because:
a) Don't wanna take a loss on a trade they were convinced would be a winner.
b) Live in hope the position has now bottomed
c) Believe if they sell the losing position now they'll be wrong again because it will bounce as soon as they do.
d) Always fast, impatient, give no thought to buying, but slow, hesitant and mull forever selling a losing position.
e) Unsuited to trading, they approach trading like buying lottery tickets.
f) Basically have a reckless attitude but think they are cleverer than the crowd which got them onto shit street in the first place.
g) 'Hidlers' because they don't wish to confront their own created demons

I've been guilty of all the above.
 
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