Are trends just self fulfilling propecy?

[2rosy]

If everyone is trained to recognize same patterns then everyone react to them same.
But since its a learning curve it becomes more complex where people recognize only patterns they have learned

So the peak of tradership would be to recornize people's reactions to the learned patterns. Which is counterintuitive.

paint the tape and spoof

 

[Coin Flip]

If everyone is trained to recognize same patterns then everyone react to them same.
But since its a learning curve it becomes more complex where people recognize only patterns they have learned

So the peak of tradership would be to recornize people's reactions to the learned patterns. Which is counterintuitive.

There is no "peak of tradership" because everyone's reaction to the learned patterns is different. So you can't "recognize" their reactions.

Take NVDA, everyone sees the general upward price pattern.

Some traders will react by buying now.

Some traders will react by refusing to buy until they see NVDA's price fall such that a 38% fibonacci retracement is formed.

Some traders will react by refusing to buy until they see NVDA's price rise such that ADX signals a strong trend.

So how you gonna "recognize" people's reactions as a whole?

 

[TheDawn]

If everyone is trained to recognize same patterns then everyone react to them same.
But since its a learning curve it becomes more complex where people recognize only patterns they have learned

So the peak of tradership would be to recornize people's reactions to the learned patterns. Which is counterintuitive.

Yes and no. They could be self-fulfilling until there is new information, then a new trend would start.

 

[ironchef]

I can't do a big enough bold for how important this concept is...

The market chart shows the change from buying-to selling and selling-to-buying. As a trader, you need to recogize this and get your money on the right side of what the market has shown. Every other consideration you have is irrelevant!*

Price TA works on ALL TIME FRAMES... ON ALL MARKETS.... equities, bonds, commodities, even mop squeezers. !

%%
Monkey see, monkey do pattern, I will watch for that one .

By the time this retail day trading monkey sees and does, it is too late, they already go the other way and I am holding the bag.

 

[Scataphagos]

This whole thread is a classic example of, "You lead a horse to water...."

Amazing.

 

[Wide Tailz]

The horse will drink when it's looking for the water. Some horses (and mules) are so stubborn they will resist anyone giving them directions.

Another kind of animal is the lemming, which follows the other ones to destruction. This was me for many years, buying training courses and trying to find a guru.

And one day this one pattern I kept seeing over and over again, on every time frame, took over my mind. When I was not looking for it, it lead me to the water on its own.

Do other traders eventually see the water on their own?

Is this a human (especially male) tendency? We need to see the water from out in the field, then wander toward it on our own before we will drink?

 

[Frederick Foresight]

"Are trends just self fulfilling propecy?"

Not necessarily, but they can become so for awhile. Refer to Soros' theory of reflexivity

P.S. Get a spell checker.

 

[murray t turtle]

By the time this retail day trading monkey sees and does, it is too late, they already go the other way and I am holding the bag. [/
QUOTE]
%%
Yes +you can lead a monkey or paint horse to water but you cant make him or her drink paint LOL

 

[murray t turtle]

Yes and no. They could be self-fulfilling until there is new information, then a new trend would start.

%%
Yes + no.
Some man that makes spelling mistakes a 80% or 100% of the time ;
should never get a job as bank teller counting moneyLOL.
T] Trends are much begger than one self , or paint horse , more like An elephnat/Asian elephant

 

[ironchef]

Do other traders eventually see the water on their own?

Is this a human (especially male) tendency? We need to see the water from out in the field, then wander toward it on our own before we will drink?

Not this day trader. Still can't find my day trading watering hole.