Are options a waste of time and money? (pun intended)

Oh goodness, you are back. How badly did Baron beg you to come back, after ET turned into another politico website?

Truth be told, I bet you could not hold onto yourself seeing an options related thread without you in it.

Welcome back

I won't be a regular, but I couldn't believe this thread wasn't satire. This absurd RSI talk... choosing a bear call spread over a bear ps because he wants a credit?!
 
The second I heard TA mentioned that was it for me, stopped engaging with that clown. Funny how many got sucked into his circus. He must have read a snake oil options book but has zero clue how to evaluate, let alone, build an edge.

I won't be a regular, but I couldn't believe this thread wasn't satire. This absurd RSI talk... choosing a bear call spread over a bear ps because he wants a credit?!
 
Ok lets look at buying an Aug2 staddle on IWM. The premiums would put your break evens at 189.17/198.84.

View attachment 319493
Good luck with that.

So clearly this trade need tweaking. Ok lets try adding a spreads (reverse iron condor).
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Yuck!

Lets look at the individual spreads.
View attachment 319499 View attachment 319500
Great reduced the break evens and risk. We need to widen the legs.


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Ok looking better but still a big heap of garbage with a 1:2 risk reward unless price swings you can close both legs separately for profits.


I may be misunderstanding the point as I'm entering the conversation midstream but those p&l graphs and your commentary are only relevant if you're planning on blindly holding to expiration. What matters is the current p&l curve, which will look much different to the charts posted, and how the p&l will be affected during the life of the option based on your prediction of how IV and the underlying price will evolve. I realize that's extremely elementary but a lot of newbs get way too hung up on option graphs at expiration when it just isn't that relevant.
 
It's like a 12 step program. They always enter vol-markets shorting ICs and then rage on anyone who will listen.

Dude. Puts are calls. You show your ignorance when you discuss married positions. The difference between a put and a call is spot.

Why did Yass from SUSQ invest in Madoff when Bernie's "split strike conversion" was simply a synthetic bull spread? Who knows. Smart ppl sometimes do stuff contrary to self interest. Nobody expects you to know anything, but there is no utility in proving your stupidity and you are more likely to get a pass than Jeff Yass. Just STFU and read. NOBODY here is pot committed and BSing themselves but you.

Put + stock = call
sstock + call = put

I can derive the forward vol on a post-earnings open in single name with my vol-arb (applied to SN). I am usually within 100beeps of the opening vol-print. My mother in law thinks I've hacked into the exchange.
 
It's like a 12 step program. They always enter vol-markets shorting ICs and then rage on anyone who will listen.

Dude. Puts are calls. You show your ignorance when you discuss married positions. The difference between a put and a call is spot.

Why did Yass from SUSQ invest in Madoff when Bernie's "split strike conversion" was simply a synthetic bull spread? Who knows. Smart ppl sometimes do stuff contrary to self interest. Nobody expects you to know anything, but there is no utility in proving your stupidity and you are more likely to get a pass than Jeff Yass. Just STFU and read. NOBODY here is pot committed and BSing themselves but you.

Put + stock = call
sstock + call = put

I can derive the forward vol on a post-earnings open in single name with my vol-arb (applied to SN). I am usually within 100beeps of the opening vol-print. My mother in law thinks I've hacked into the exchange.

I think you mean a synthetic long which is a call - put = stock
 
I may be misunderstanding the point as I'm entering the conversation midstream but those p&l graphs and your commentary are only relevant if you're planning on blindly holding to expiration. What matters is the current p&l curve, which will look much different to the charts posted, and how the p&l will be affected during the life of the option based on your prediction of how IV and the underlying price will evolve. I realize that's extremely elementary but a lot of newbs get way too hung up on option graphs at expiration when it just isn't that relevant.

The screenshots were taken at expiration because I start there and work backwards.
 
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The second I heard TA mentioned that was it for me, stopped engaging with that clown. Funny how many got sucked into his circus. He must have read a snake oil options book but has zero clue how to evaluate, let alone, build an edge.

Well have fun trading blindly then. You stopped engaging because I was schooling you on options.
 
I won't be a regular, but I couldn't believe this thread wasn't satire. This absurd RSI talk... choosing a bear call spread over a bear ps because he wants a credit?!

The RSI talk was in response to convex/concave slope talk which I was letting the poster know that the RSI already has that built in if you know how to read it.

Who chose a bear call spread over a bear put spread? I haven't taken any positions because they all looked terrible under analysis. That was the point of this whole topic.
 
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Probability of max gain is the wrong question to ask. The point is that it costs nothing to hold and any settlement is a (relative) lottery win. The problem is that I am impacting the skew on index.

Friday SET value came in:

I would think the point would be making the most profit possible with the time and money you have allocated.

So your position is impacting the skew...kind of like punching yourself in the face?
 
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