Apparently the sky is falling
- Thread starter kmiklas
- Start date
When everyone & their mother can see the warning signals, the market is going the other way. Every time.
Central Banks under-estimated there stupidity of uber low interest rates, and accidentally created a world bubble, debt servicing on loans is now lowering spending power across the world. In any given economy, purchasing power largely reflects on how much Debt Servicing it has to fulfill, in a Ponzi like cycle like current one, new money has to pay for old debt, so the stimulus every few quarters the Central Banks have been doing, have got to keep getting bigger to normalize purchasing power due to higher debt servicing, and the intended effects are shorter, like China's 4 Trillion yuan printing in January alone, did not even boost any consumption even with there new years celebration... China has been trying to stop it's current recession that started in early 2018, and they are unable to stop it from collapsing. I do not think there's ever been a major economy that it's Central Bank and government were unable to stop it's own downfall. China cannot have a soft landing, they will not get a Japan Lost decade, they will get a hard landing and you are seeing it now... People seem to forget the driver of this cycle was massive Chinese printing debt, which export orientated economies benefited tremendously, from Australia all the way to Germany, well it's been coming to an end quite fast since 2018. It's at 1000 % percent the global economy crashes in 2019, much sooner then later. We have always had boom-bust cycles since the early 1900s, this was the biggest boom and will be the biggest bust, it's not just a single country, every major economy has a serious debt problem. Like I typed in another thread, will markets go in meltdown or just bear territory ? Who really knows, could be meltdown given the extent of financial collapse, won't be many guys like Buffet staying in once the Tesla's and Wirecard's get exposed or once Moody's downgrades BBB's into Junk. One thing that is for certain, this will be the biggest economic recession in modern era, it will last many years... Only way out is deleveraging, possibly a lot of it
I truly hope your prediction will not come to fruition for all of our sake. Sadly however, I think you are right. The next downturn will be like nothing we saw before.
My trading might actually become a lot more profitable as volatility expands, but overall financial stability might suffer a lot, not good for long term. We might also see civil unrest.
Civil unrest is already emerging across Europe, South America and United States... Europe needs a crisis, that's why I am so bearish, the powers to be need a crash. Free masons have a quote " Out of Chaos Comes Order ". I think Italy signing BRI with China was very significant in terms of Europe's problems, possibly the green light to pull the plug. We shall see what happens in the next few days with Brexit MPs voting, it'll give us a better sense on the very short term of things to come
IMO "everyone and their mother
Also I don't think in terms of every time for anything, after seeing too many times it turn out not to be the case.