Anybody else short US 30 Bond

[Illum]

Quote from Martinghoul:

It's complicated and I would suggest that trading macro themes, which seems to be what you're doing, is very difficult over short horizons. The x-mkt correlations you're looking at are only really there over longer observation periods, I would think. Except, obviously, very big shocking bits of news.

Thx Martinghoul for your response, big fan of your postings.

It is certainly difficult to trade these themes intraday. Especially if they are long term and can not account for noise. It is my style so I will have to adapt better or fall by the wayside. I think to myself if I would have been around during pit days, my eyes would have been glaring out of the pit to screens of other markets to base my trades. Me getting involved in an instrument based solely on its own merits or lack thereof, feels.. vulnerable. I have reconciled yesterday action in my mind, enough to keep at it with zb. Feel a bit foolish, like a hangover, with some things I do not want to remember. But learning..

I do believe exactly what you mentioned got the better of me, and was apparent by end of day.

Thx again

 

[upandcomer]

I'm fairly new with bonds, but I am Bearish for the next few months with the continuation of QE2. I do not know of any reason why rates would go down... From what I understand is this:

-If the economy improves, rates go up because of the somewhat likeliness of coming inflation.
-If the economy gets shittier/stays the same, rates go up because the odds of the US defaulting will increase with the risk of deflation/lack of tax income.
-Even if the FED would have announced a cancelation of QE2 there would have been doubts concerning the continuation of "increasing" growth in the economy...

Can anybody explain to me the other side of the story? Tell my why rates may not increase, please?

Thanks much and correct me if im wrong about anything.

 

[BondTrader50]

Quote from upandcomer:



Can anybody explain to me the other side of the story? Tell my why rates may not increase, please?

Portugal..Spain...Ireland...Greece part 2 (not the movie)

 

[invertedCurve]

since I have friends in the pit who text me all day for my levels I am starting a new service for the ES, 5-30 year part of the curve. I want to advertise on Elite Trader and will when I get this up and going. If you want me to send you my levels for free for two weeks let me know (private message me) then there will be a charge for them. Those of you who follow this thread know I know what I am talking about and talk about losses on here as well as wins so this is no BS. Trading actively the ES, cash and futures yield curve for the last 8 years has given me a unique prospective on these marekts and I want to help others make $. Not trying to be a whale but knowing what they look at and how they do it is a skill set of mine; for some reason I have issues with execution which is another issue I have to deal with but levels are not an issue. I am doing something no one else is doing as well when I send levels out I send a graphical representation of the previous days levels that I sent with what happened the next day so you can see if I was correct in my judgement- I have the balls to stick to my calls when they are right or wrong.

 

[Crude Man]

anybody going short Treasury futures before the 7-Yr Note Auction at
1:00 PM ET?

 

[sjfan]

And risk the auction come thru and gap up 10 ticks? no thanks

Quote from Crude Man:

anybody going short Treasury futures before the 7-Yr Note Auction at
1:00 PM ET?

 

[JodyOng]

Short at 120'20 and looking to add on now with ZB at top of its range. Down trends very solid and see chances higher for it to continue moves lower.

Any views people?

 

[DblArrow]

Quote from JodyOng:

Short at 120'20 and looking to add on now with ZB at top of its range. Down trends very solid and see chances higher for it to continue moves lower.

Any views people?

Daily says we are in a range 122-7 to 118-21 for the last 5 weeks, don't really see any strength to the down side or upside yet. Down days definitely happen bigger than up days but not much follow through. Down; couple days up, lather rinse and repeat. Not much conviction either way.

That being said I don't pay alot of attention to the daily - other than to get an overall view, and certainly don't trade based on it.

 

[Shagi]

Quote from JodyOng:

Short at 120'20 and looking to add on now with ZB at top of its range. Down trends very solid and see chances higher for it to continue moves lower.

Any views people?

The long awaited Bond Armageddon unfolds tomorrow - add short positions truck load sizes before close as bond vigilantes will be on the prowl

 

[increasenow]

Quote from Shagi:

The long awaited Bond Armageddon unfolds tomorrow

how huge do you think the 30 yr & 10 yr announcements will be tomorrow at 9:00 EST? Is this what you are referencing?