Anybody else short US 30 Bond

When do you guys usually trade ZB, ZN, DX etc? I have been wanting to get in but the price movement has been glacial at best especially after 10.30 AM or so.

There is decent volume in the mornings between 8 and 9.30, but is that the peak? Maybe its my broker: ToS.

Thanks.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

Partly it's based on this story:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...06-7-billion-yen-overseas-debt-last-week.html

If you go to the Japanese MOF site (here: http://www.mof.go.jp/shoutou/week1047.htm), you'll see that they turned sellers in the second week of Nov and have been selling ever since. Moreover, if I had to guess, they probably stopped showing up at the UST auctions, which didn't help matters.

Whatever happened, someone certainly did show up for the 30y affair today. Maybe Mrs Watanabe just can't survive without her weekly US Treasury fix :).
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Thanks for the MOF link ! Another one in my database ! :)
 
Quote from ASusilovic:

Buying March 130.00 puts, 125 and 120.00. Yesterdays minutes start point for mega sell-off. I can´t find words to express the stupidity of the FED ! Unbelievable but sadly true.
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Ladies and genetlemen,

I think, I exit 1/2 of this position now. Uncle BEN and "dream team" will defintely send again the wrong message via their "rate decision" today. I think, I am in love again with the bond market...

203677977LmVRqB_fs.jpg
 
Well, its been a bloodbath hasn't it folks?
That one day rally on Monday was a sucker wasn't it?
But I'm not holding any shorts here.

3.50% on US10

We may rally hard for a couple of weeks into year end, some carry type trades look interesting now.

I'm not sure if you guys & gals trade Eurodollars but Dec13 Libor at 3%+, well that's a stretch IMHO with Bernanke likely on hold rate wise for six months.

The sell off I said would happen one month ago, I think the easy money has now been made, maybe back to the slow grind up for the next 12 months...
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

Why not 3+% in Dec13? Besides 10% of that is basis + turn.
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It is possible, sure.

But equally, why not 0.30% in Dec13? 100% of that is basis + turn :D
 
Quote from benwm:

It is possible, sure.

But equally, why not 0.30% in Dec13? 100% of that is basis + turn :D
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Haha, I like where you going with this... I just got so long, I can't see straight.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

Haha, I like where you going with this... I just got so long, I can't see straight.
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Take a look at today's JGB chart if you haven't already...
That will make you more bullish.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

Haha, I like where you going with this... I just got so long, I can't see straight.
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Martinghoul
Just curious, from a trading perspective how you do manage your entries and exits?

Did you scale into your longs, or do you generally add when the position moves in your favour?

And as for your exit, do you use stops?

I've had difficulties the past couple of days stopping out numerous times on various long attempts...
 
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