Anybody else short US 30 Bond

I lost 0.5 point. Desperate almost break even exit. But could have been much worse. Looking at the chart, at the end of the day it is so obvious. I am not sure what the hell happen during the day. Also the ES was obviously going up. This should have been an easy 6-8 even 10 points day. They don't make it easy.

My mistake was not believing the order flow. By the time I got it, it was too late. Then I gave up and just watched the show.

Lucky but not happy.
 
I think that if we build volume under 116 20 it will go down to 116 10. If we get back to 116 26 quickly and build there we could have a range day. After that we follow the breakout from it.

If a down move is rejected strongly and new volume builds over 117 it could be an up day. But it is a long way to 117 from here.

What I am saying is that I have no clue.

News rich day tomorrow. Probably a crazy day. I am getting tired of this shit. I need to find something that does not depend on the FED that much, or the weather or the news. Any ideas?
 
ZN did develop as planed but I traded the ES today. It worked much easier than ZN. I got 3 points so far. As someone else said it seems that one gets to close with an instrument and starts projecting behavior that is not there. It starts to anticipate the next move. ZN is not behaving as it used to. It might be time to change to another instrument for some time and loose the baggage.

Edit: 3 points out of 9 points range so far is not bad.
 
Quote from jmillions100:

Hi, guess you were a little early.
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That what she said.

Now I will try to short from 9

Edit1: OK short at 9 let see.

Edit2: I am going to target 3 as exit not 2.
 
Quote from ivanbaj:

ZN did develop as planed but I traded the ES today. It worked much easier than ZN. I got 3 points so far. As someone else said it seems that one gets to close with an instrument and starts projecting behavior that is not there. It starts to anticipate the next move. ZN is not behaving as it used to. It might be time to change to another instrument for some time and loose the baggage.

Edit: 3 points out of 9 points range so far is not bad.
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the spooz algo's don't let it move like the curve, sometimes I see 50K cars trade in spooz and it goes from 29.50 to 27.25 that sucks when that many treasuries trade you get total chaos. yesterday I think was convexity selling on the long end. At least with spooz the most you will lose is 3-4points on a trade it is so slow but deceptive. I still don't like sitting in something for an hour or two to make 3 points. Still like treasuries better cause they are so violent. Looks like for now we are in the 4% to 3.25% range in the tens.
 
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