Anybody else short US 30 Bond

[invertedCurve]

Quote from nelsanity:

Folks at my firm are betting 122 - 128

the market has moved 6 handles up from 93 ish in cash (ZN from 112.25 to 119) to almost 99 handle which is a move from 4.01 to about 3.25% (98.28+) unless the world looks like it is going to fall apart again I really do not see the tens moving so far under 3% yield. 122-128 is quite a far spread of an area to target. (approx 2.85-2.25%)
I hope you are not correct in the 128 handle that move would mean the stock market had tanked again hard.

 

[nelsanity]

Quote from invertedCurve:

the market has moved 6 handles up from 93 ish in cash (ZN from 112.25 to 119) to almost 99 handle which is a move from 4.01 to about 3.25% (98.28+) unless the world looks like it is going to fall apart again I really do not see the tens moving so far under 3% yield. 122-128 is quite a far spread of an area to target. (approx 2.85-2.25%)
I hope you are not correct in the 128 handle that move would mean the stock market had tanked again hard.

128 is gloomiest outlook, 122 is best case scenario. Not my viewpoint, but traders at my firm. Again for early fall - early winter time frame. Im very bearish on anything U.S. prints but I am going to stay away from the steamroller until long term fundamentals come to forefront again.

 

[NAVEEVIa]

I see the 10 yr cash 97 13.5 which is 3.5 ticks from the low of day 97 10
Whereaas TY is trading at 117 28.5 Low is 117 19.5
So it seems to me that TY has not fallen in line with cash , iHow to compare both apart from basis

 

[Martinghoul]

Quote from NAVEEVIa:

I see the 10 yr cash 97 13.5 which is 3.5 ticks from the low of day 97 10
Whereaas TY is trading at 117 28.5 Low is 117 19.5
So it seems to me that TY has not fallen in line with cash , iHow to compare both apart from basis

The only other way to look at this is to compare the the two asset swap levels, which, simplistically, looks at the bonds/futures against a single common denominator, specifically, the LIBOR curve.

In this case, the answer is probably simpler, though... It's probably just a function of the curve steepening (7s10s), so that curr 10s sold off more than the May 16s, which is the TY CTD.

 

[enochbenjamin]

what the hell was that? was rockin and rollin and then got hit by a mack truck at 12:55

 

[Surdo]

ZN has become an untradeable erratic POS!

That was a nice sell off below 117, but ZIG-ZAG-ZIG lick my balls for the past 2 hours.

 

[Dollars&Sense]

Quote from enochbenjamin:

what the hell was that? was rockin and rollin and then got hit by a mack truck at 12:55

FOMC Minutes released at 1PM Central if that's the time you're talking about.

 

[enochbenjamin]

Quote from Dollars&Sense:

FOMC Minutes released at 1PM Central if that's the time you're talking about.

doh! and believe it or not I have this written on my board above my desk!

 

[athlonmank8]

Quote from nelsanity:

128 is gloomiest outlook, 122 is best case scenario. Not my viewpoint, but traders at my firm. Again for early fall - early winter time frame. Im very bearish on anything U.S. prints but I am going to stay away from the steamroller until long term fundamentals come to forefront again.

Cycles play out end of august.

 

[invertedCurve]

total F#$king Carnage! I lost money today being short at the wrong times when the flows come in they don't come back and you get pounded. Then you think it is over and get long and get pounded. After minutes when they said they would not increase QE I thought my short was good and it was then I reversed - whoops!