"AHA" Moment - Finding confidence

[abstractcapital]

Why do I keep making these kind of posts? Just to "needle" the dumbasses.

Because it pisses-off the doubters, haters, ignorant and fools about TA.

(How ironic... one must SHOVE THE TRUTH DOWN PEOPLE'S THROATS... the truth that could not only relieve their anguish, but earn them fortunes... and even then they bristle against.)

Good Luck!

Thank you! I see a lot of criticism about TA online, and at one point I almost believed that the "imaginary lines" could just be BS. Although, the more TA I do, the more I see how real it is and I start to wonder if maybe people who are posting such negativity either don't want people to know about it - or maybe they just suck at drawing on charts & never found success..

 

[abstractcapital]

NQ weekly average true range centered on 5 day moving average, return to the mean from the extreme.

This is somewhat like my current strategy. I look to find the ATR of tickers like $QQQ or $TSLA and long/short when PA is far from VWAP or at a support/ resistance. Thank you for this!

 

[schizo]

Learning to trade is like learning a new language. At first, everything sounds like a garbled noise, but as you progress, your ear will eventually pick up on things that were unintelligible before. Same concept with charts. There's a meaning behind every candle and there's a clear narrative behind a trend and whatnot.

 

[Sekiyo]

Consistency input wise.
Because outcomes can be volatile.

Even a profitable strategy,
Can have years of drawdown.

Most of the time is spent underwater,
Only once in a while, equity reaches an ATH.

A 60/40 probability paying even,
80% of the time in drawdown.

It takes practice, not years.
Deliberate practice. Not gambling.
To figure out the game and ourselves.

I always want to say …
Think long term and avoid problems.
It’s a long walk forward but a little backwards.

God doesn’t give us what we don’t deserve.
It’s going to be easy, but destiny’s about hardship.

 

[tomkat22]

Even a profitable strategy,
Can have years of drawdown.

Years? I dont know if I can get on board with that concept. Most people dont have that kind of patience and will abandon a strategy before YEARS elapse. Sitting through years of a long,protracted drawdown just seems to be asking too much.

 

[Tradess0610]

Years? I dont know if I can get on board with that concept. Most people dont have that kind of patience and will abandon a strategy before YEARS elapse. Sitting through years of a long,protracted drawdown just seems to be asking too much.

Yep, I would guess the strategy is not optimal for the market conditions of the past years...

 

[Tradess0610]

In the "other" thread where a guy was asking who was profitable not many shared their performance. Makes you wonder.

Well I personally consider it extremely rude if people are asking me how much money I am making. In real life as well as online.
The topic concerns only me, my husband and my tax advisor

 

[Laissez Faire]

Well I personally consider it extremely rude if people are asking me how much money I am making. In real life as well as online.
The topic concerns only me, my husband and my tax advisor

In real life I mostly agree.

However, on a trading forum, I think it's an appropriate question.

For example, if someone isn't making money, yet is mentoring people or giving out advice, I don't think that's a good thing. That's the blind leading the blind and I suspect > 90 % of EliteTrader.

Now, if someone is making money, it would be interesting to know how much in order to both know what's possible and to have some realistic expectations for people who are curious about pursuing trader.

In my opinion at least.

 

[Handle123]

When I use to manage money, sell systems, call signals, was registered, took tests, had attorney's to oversee what I wrote. Gave those interested past 3 years of weekly/monthly brokerage statements. It was the start of when trading was getting boring. I no longer do the above, I can't stand manual trading, staff does 99% of trading, it's hard to even to look at charts, doing it too long. The one percent like designing new systems and adjust old systems.

1978 had to do charts by hand, was profitable in Stocks from beginning, Futures took several years, options 3 years but don't use Greeks much, hedging taken 10 years to understand all different ways to utilize.

If I had to restart my life, never go into scalping/day trading. Better long term futures and short term/swing credit spreads. Concentrate on low risk.

 

[Sekiyo]

Years? I dont know if I can get on board with that concept. Most people dont have that kind of patience and will abandon a strategy before YEARS elapse. Sitting through years of a long,protracted drawdown just seems to be asking too much.

Agree, but it's good to know.

When you run 10 years of simulations,
Sometimes you see 1 or 2 years of drawdown.

Could be the very first year,
Then the average catch up over time.
Usually you have a very good year after a shity year.

If your average is, let's say, 1% per day and the yearly return is 0%
Then the next year you might very well make 100x just for the theoretical average to catch up.

Power(1.01, 504)