"AHA" Moment - Finding confidence

How long did it take you to find consistency?

  • 1-2 years

    Votes: 2 14.3%

  • 3-4 years

    Votes: 1 7.1%

  • 5-6 years

    Votes: 11 78.6%
  • Total voters
    14
abstractcapital

abstractcapital

I'm curious to know what was your "AHA" moment that lead you to finding consistency. I believe I'm almost at that stage but am still somewhat struggling to believe it after many years of failure.

Backstory:
I have been a student of the markets for about 3 years now, and luckily I was able to catch some of that easy money and made about $250k in my first 2 years. I remember not knowing anything and being intimidated by switching from Robinhood to Thinkorswim.

Every day for the last 3 years, I spent time learning about macroeconomics, technical and fundamental analysis, and everything I can to understand why the market moves the way it does. I went from those awful paid signal groups to trying to make my own plays. Unfortunately on my 3rd year, my fiance left me which really messed up my confidence and it reflected in my work.

Basically, I went broke. However, trading is the one thing I'm truly passionate about. I know because I've always had trouble showing up on time for my previous jobs, but I'm always up before the market opens to do my tech analysis and catch up on any events I might've missed. I'm always eager and excited for the opportunities the new day brings and I really enjoy the constant self-improvement aspect of the job. Trading truly makes me happy.

Now, I'm at a point where I feel like I'm really close to finding my edge. I've had this feeling for a while, but it was only once I started posting ideas on Trading View that I realized I might not be that incompetent anymore and gained some confidence back. So far, out of my 15 posts, 14 have hit. I even experienced a week a month ago where I started to trade again and made 100%+ each day. Although, I quickly withdrew the $ to pay bills as I'm really low on capital at the moment.

Basically, I want to know if I should keep going and if any pro's out there have had similar experiences when finding their consistency? Obviously, I'm looking to find a job to get an income stream going again, but I guess I'm looking for assurance that I'm on the right track because I've heard it takes most traders 3-5 years to become consistent.

For context, Im 25 and don't have many responsibilities anymore. Should I try to find a new career and treat trading as a hobby, or should I keep going and follow my passion while I work somewhere to pay my current bills?
 
There's a recent thread started yesterday much on the same subject. Check it out:

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/anyone-here-actually-profitable.373538/

From most I've talked to 10 years seems to be a good approximation of what it takes to reach consistency - if at all.

abstractcapital said:
Backstory:
I have been a student of the markets for about 3 years now, and luckily I was able to catch some of that easy money and made about $250k in my first 2 years. I remember not knowing anything and being intimidated by switching from Robinhood to Thinkorswim.
More...

Curious to hear some more details on this. Exactly how did you make $250K and with what working capital?

Further - you said you went broke. Does this mean you blew your entire $250K? If so, how did that happen?
 
abstractcapital said:
I'm curious to know what was your "AHA" moment that lead you to finding consistency. I believe I'm almost at that stage but am still somewhat struggling to believe it after many years of failure.

Backstory:
I have been a student of the markets for about 3 years now, and luckily I was able to catch some of that easy money and made about $250k in my first 2 years. I remember not knowing anything and being intimidated by switching from Robinhood to Thinkorswim.

Every day for the last 3 years, I spent time learning about macroeconomics, technical and fundamental analysis, and everything I can to understand why the market moves the way it does. I went from those awful paid signal groups to trying to make my own plays. Unfortunately on my 3rd year, my fiance left me which really messed up my confidence and it reflected in my work.

Basically, I went broke. However, trading is the one thing I'm truly passionate about. I know because I've always had trouble showing up on time for my previous jobs, but I'm always up before the market opens to do my tech analysis and catch up on any events I might've missed. I'm always eager and excited for the opportunities the new day brings and I really enjoy the constant self-improvement aspect of the job. Trading truly makes me happy.

Now, I'm at a point where I feel like I'm really close to finding my edge. I've had this feeling for a while, but it was only once I started posting ideas on Trading View that I realized I might not be that incompetent anymore and gained some confidence back. So far, out of my 15 posts, 14 have hit. I even experienced a week a month ago where I started to trade again and made 100%+ each day. Although, I quickly withdrew the $ to pay bills as I'm really low on capital at the moment.

Basically, I want to know if I should keep going and if any pro's out there have had similar experiences when finding their consistency? Obviously, I'm looking to find a job to get an income stream going again, but I guess I'm looking for assurance that I'm on the right track because I've heard it takes most traders 3-5 years to become consistent.

For context, Im 25 and don't have many responsibilities anymore. Should I try to find a new career and treat trading as a hobby, or should I keep going and follow my passion while I work somewhere to pay my current bills?
More...

Took me "couple of months"... I was profitable right off the bat.. 1st year. How? I viewed the daily chart data from ~1966-1974. That was a large, long trading range market. I noticed the regularities of "buying the 20 Day MA cross to the upside and selling the cross on the downside"? That's when I "got it" with Technical Analysis.

Of course that was simplistic and basic... but it illustrated the "behavioral regularity" of the stock market.

You want to trade the markets successfully? Learn Price TA* and trade with discipline.

* Don't listen to anybody who tells you "TA doesn't work". It's right there... in front of your eyes every day... we all see the same data, but few "get" the regularities.

I refer to Sherlock Holmes... when asked, "just what is it that you do, Mr. Holmes"? He replied, "I observe and deduce". That's just as applicable to trading as it is to solving fictional crimes. :)

Good Luck!
 
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Scataphagos said:
Took me "couple of months"... I was profitable right off the bat.. 1st year. How? I viewed the daily chart data from ~1966-1974. That was a large, long trading range market. I noticed the regularities of "buying the 20 Day MA cross to the upside and selling the cross on the downside"? That's when I "got it" with Technical Analysis.

Of course that was simplistic and basic... but it illustrated the "behavioral regularity" of the stock market.

You want to trade the markets successfully? Learn Price TA* and trade with discipline.

* Don't listen to anybody who tells you "TA doesn't work". It's right there... in front of your eyes every day... we all see the same data, but few "get" the regularities.

I refer to Sherlock Holmes... when asked, "just what is it that you do, Mr. Holmes"? He replied, "I observe and deduce". That's just as applicable to trading as it is to solving fictional crimes. :)

Good Luck!
More...

Why do I keep making these kind of posts? Just to "needle" the dumbasses.

Because it pisses-off the doubters, haters, ignorant and fools about TA. :) :)

(How ironic... one must SHOVE THE TRUTH DOWN PEOPLE'S THROATS... the truth that could not only relieve their anguish, but earn them fortunes... and even then they bristle against.) :)

Good Luck!
 
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Early luck disguised as skill is very well known to be the (usually spectacular) death of many would-be traders. In all the cases I've heard about, it's practically impossible to recover from the temptation to get right back in the fast lane after you've been on it. The drudgery and many, many setbacks that everyone should expect on the road to trading mastery apparently cannot be endured for those who saw early "success" come and go so quickly and easily.

My advice would be to take a LONG (a couple years at least) break and get completely away from active trading or trading development/analysis. Read about market history, psychology, probability and risk management, biographies of traders, learn to code, etc. but stay completely away from thinking about how you're going to regain your previous glory. When you reach a point where you can HONESTLY look back on where you are now and realize that it was all just a giant stroke of dumb luck followed by the inevitable implosion; and you HONESTLY think you have what it takes to put in the time and effort and endure the grind of really learning to trade, then you'll have a chance.

I'd say that the odds are against you, but maybe you're the type who can be motivated by that?
 
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OGGWild said:
I'd say that the odds are against you
More...

The odds are against you if you're trying to do anything other than, "getting your money in tune with the market's bias". How do you do that? Learn and trade "Price TA". That is, "if the market is buying, YOU should too. If the market is selling, YOU should too". How do you know? Price TA, that's how!
 
Scataphagos said:
Why do I keep making these kind of posts? Just to "needle" the dumbasses.

Because it pisses-off the doubters, haters, ignorant and fools about TA. :) :)

(How ironic... one must SHOVE THE TRUTH DOWN PEOPLE'S THROATS... the truth that could not only relieve their anguish, but earn them fortunes... and even then they bristle against.) :)

Good Luck!
More...

Would you mind sharing your year to date P&L (day) trading using TA?

That's the only truth which matters, IMO. :)

I shared mine in another thread. Nothing to brag about of course.

Thank you.
 
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