"AHA" Moment - Finding confidence

[deaddog]

In real life I mostly agree.

However, on a trading forum, I think it's an appropriate question.

For example, if someone isn't making money, yet is mentoring people or giving out advice, I don't think that's a good thing. That's the blind leading the blind and I suspect > 90 % of EliteTrader.

Now, if someone is making money, it would be interesting to know how much in order to both know what's possible and to have some realistic expectations for people who are curious about pursuing trader.

In my opinion at least.

You don't have to mention how much money you make. You can give your performance as a percentage, or at a minimum compare it to a benchmark. Are you outperforming the SPY?

Then of course be prepared to be asked for an audited statement.

 

[tomkat22]

You don't have to mention how much money you make. You can give your performance as a percentage, or at a minimum compare it to a benchmark. Are you outperforming the SPY?

Then of course be prepared to be asked for an audited statement.

I'd settle for forum members just telling us how well they're doing for 2023,2022,etc and let us decide whether we think they're lying or not. At least Ross Cameron does it often.Humbled Trader never does it.

 

[Tradess0610]

In real life I mostly agree.

However, on a trading forum, I think it's an appropriate question.

For example, if someone isn't making money, yet is mentoring people or giving out advice, I don't think that's a good thing. That's the blind leading the blind and I suspect > 90 % of EliteTrader.

Now, if someone is making money, it would be interesting to know how much in order to both know what's possible and to have some realistic expectations for people who are curious about pursuing trader.

In my opinion at least.

Well the way I see it, no one here is actively mentoring. Giving out advice is just a forum discussion and it is up to every individual to decide if they want to take it or not.

Maybe different things work for different people - if some people feel giving out statements gives them more credibility - it is fine by me.

But I would never post performance stats on some kind of forum in hope that people would take me more seriously.

These stats could easily be fake, just saying.

 

[zdave83]

It's hard to tell if this is consistent with the scope of your question ... but here goes.
Consistent from day 1. Nothing works all the time, just try to focus on what's working.
- money market funds starting early '80's
- next into equity funds thru the late '90's
- next into funds & ETF's for diversified equity market segments and asset classes in the 2000's
- next into equity index options in the teens
- next faded long equities with the Fed in '22
- still mixed ETF's and options and near-cash

FWIW ... I like discussions about what's driving markets ... couldn't care less about how much people are making ... there are better ways to figure out whether what they're saying is of value.

 

[alistera]

I'm curious to know what was your "AHA" moment that lead you to finding consistency. I believe I'm almost at that stage but am still somewhat struggling to believe it after many years of failure.

Backstory:
I have been a student of the markets for about 3 years now, and luckily I was able to catch some of that easy money and made about $250k in my first 2 years. I remember not knowing anything and being intimidated by switching from Robinhood to Thinkorswim.

Every day for the last 3 years, I spent time learning about macroeconomics, technical and fundamental analysis, and everything I can to understand why the market moves the way it does. I went from those awful paid signal groups to trying to make my own plays. Unfortunately on my 3rd year, my fiance left me which really messed up my confidence and it reflected in my work.

Basically, I went broke. However, trading is the one thing I'm truly passionate about. I know because I've always had trouble showing up on time for my previous jobs, but I'm always up before the market opens to do my tech analysis and catch up on any events I might've missed. I'm always eager and excited for the opportunities the new day brings and I really enjoy the constant self-improvement aspect of the job. Trading truly makes me happy.

Now, I'm at a point where I feel like I'm really close to finding my edge. I've had this feeling for a while, but it was only once I started posting ideas on Trading View that I realized I might not be that incompetent anymore and gained some confidence back. So far, out of my 15 posts, 14 have hit. I even experienced a week a month ago where I started to trade again and made 100%+ each day. Although, I quickly withdrew the $ to pay bills as I'm really low on capital at the moment.

Basically, I want to know if I should keep going and if any pro's out there have had similar experiences when finding their consistency? Obviously, I'm looking to find a job to get an income stream going again, but I guess I'm looking for assurance that I'm on the right track because I've heard it takes most traders 3-5 years to become consistent.

For context, Im 25 and don't have many responsibilities anymore. Should I try to find a new career and treat trading as a hobby, or should I keep going and follow my passion while I work somewhere to pay my current bills?

You were caught in a cycle which is designed to do exactly this, by any chance did you make around 200%pa which triggers every 2yrs a total profit loss (via wrong choices) and total capital loss (via pure mistakes or targeted learning).

 

[abstractcapital]

You were caught in a cycle which is designed to do exactly this, by any chance did you make around 200%pa which triggers every 2yrs a total profit loss (via wrong choices) and total capital loss (via pure mistakes or targeted learning).

Im not sure I fully understand the question, but basically I made a few shekels being lucky my first 2 years as I had no clue what drove markets and no solid strategy. I didnt round trip profits as I withdrew a lot to sustain a lifestyle that was a lot higher than what I was used to bc I was ignorant and figured "I could always make more". 3rd year it all went to shit as I lost confidence in myself and couldnt sustain the lifestyle anymore.

Now, I have a better understanding of macroeconomics and a strategy that seems to be working for me, it just sucks that now that I know +/- what do to, I dont have the capital to exercise my newfound knowledge/ confidence.

 

[abstractcapital]

It's hard to tell if this is consistent with the scope of your question ... but here goes.
Consistent from day 1. Nothing works all the time, just try to focus on what's working.
- money market funds starting early '80's
- next into equity funds thru the late '90's
- next into funds & ETF's for diversified equity market segments and asset classes in the 2000's
- next into equity index options in the teens
- next faded long equities with the Fed in '22
- still mixed ETF's and options and near-cash

FWIW ... I like discussions about what's driving markets ... couldn't care less about how much people are making ... there are better ways to figure out whether what they're saying is of value.

I like this reply because youre totally right. Seems like every cycle has it's own fuel or popular sectors/ instruments. Do you have any recommendations on where to have good discussions surrounding macroeconomics and strategies? Im new to this forum, and still have mixed feelings about what I could extract from here. Although, it does seem to be more helpful than discord and twitter where its flooded by people who truly dont know whats going on & are simply looking to follow someone elses signals.

 

[alistera]

Im not sure I fully understand the question, but basically I made a few shekels being lucky my first 2 years as I had no clue what drove markets and no solid strategy. I didnt round trip profits as I withdrew a lot to sustain a lifestyle that was a lot higher than what I was used to bc I was ignorant and figured "I could always make more". 3rd year it all went to shit as I lost confidence in myself and couldnt sustain the lifestyle anymore.

Now, I have a better understanding of macroeconomics and a strategy that seems to be working for me, it just sucks that now that I know +/- what do to, I dont have the capital to exercise my newfound knowledge/ confidence.

The markets go in Tulip Mania cycles, looks like you were caught in a 2yr one, not entirely sure why you are assuming you will not be caught in another shorter or longer cycle, but this is how it goes with everyone.

Recovering losses is always easier that generating new profits depending on how much time elapsed between the event and today, once you have access to the trade book you can hook in to the cycles.

Unfortunate you don't have an asset to liquidate for $30k which would be needed to seed a recovery account, I've been called in to recover for $100,000s losses, it's incredibly profitable fixing other people's mistakes to get them back to parity.

 

[lariati]

For me, the biggest "aha" moment is when you realize 90% of the information about trading is simply wrong. There is such an asymmetry between sharing wrong information vs right/profitable information it has to be that way.

If something is popular it is wrong and useless because only wrong information is really worth sharing with that small 10% of the time right information slips through the cracks for various reasons.

It is also very interesting to be around long enough to see entire new generations discover indicators and TA. The idea something so popular could be useless makes no sense in every other domain.

 

[alistera]

Technical Analysis is not useless, it struggles with overuse due to being quantifiable and sells a lot of books, yet so few can use it properly it is close to useless for most people, but close to useless is not useless.

The problem with public information is that people have such low standards they cannot explain this coherently, it requires people like me being trained by the best to make sure anyone new to the game, and it is just that, has 100% of the picture not a micro view on someone's individual bias because they did not have the skill to be in the top 1% who were able to make that approach succeed.