Ag trade ideas

[TraDaToR]

08/16/2019 : Short CC U20/Z20 @ 9.

- The front of the curve is sinking after July run up.
- Good weather and crop conditions in West Africa.
-Seasonality.

 

[TraDaToR]

For whoever reads this, that -4 Oats Z/H iceberg offer looks like free money, check U/Z...

08/20/2019 : Out @ -4.25. A good reminder that free money doesn't really exist.

 

[TraDaToR]

08/22/2019 : Long ZC N20/U20 @ -1.5 over the last few days.

- The crop tour is showing that even if it is better than originally thought, this crop is far from good and an early frost can be devastating.
- ZC N20/U20 is lower than ZC N19/U19 at this time last year with the huge crop.
- Corn should gain acres next year which should pressure intercrop U.
-N/U way oversold on the curve.

 

[ffs1001]

@TraDaToR, have I got this right - you bought the July and sold the Sep?
If so, I've just checked seasonality charts, and this spread actually falls. It's been a sell on 8 of the 10 last years.

 

[TraDaToR]

Yes. It has. But it is already super low and the risk is on the upside now...

 

[TraDaToR]

05/22/19 : Long ZS U19/X19/F20 butterfly @ -1.5.

- The rumored new MFP payment on soybeans would further increase switch from corn to soy.
- CME increases storage charges on nov expiry, so even without the MFP, X/F has the potential to go in a deeper contango than U/X.

08/23/2019: Out @ 1. Not what I envisioned, but I will take it.

 

[Overnight]

@TraDaToR What is your insight on the "deal" we now have with Japan, where Trump says Japan is going to buy a ton of USA corn? Think it will pop tomorrow morning?

 

[Rachmaninov]

You can check in the https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/home
I think Japan is already buying most of its corn from the US
Same story with Europe saying that it's going to buy US soybean, US soybean was cheaper for Europe at this time
It's free speech and "the one" is happy like a child

 

[TommyR]

AG is not for sale

 

[Rachmaninov]

But "The one" wanted to buy Greenland..