Ag trade ideas

TraDaToR said:
Seriously ZC U/Z looks like a mega sell to me at these levels. U is not part of the potential failing crop whereas U/Z is overbought compared to Z/H and even N/U in the delivery period. The only potential upside is coming from dumb money piling on corn first expiry...Which can actually be a threat.
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...:cool:...
 
TraDaToR said:
07/01/2019 : Short HE J20/M20 @ -7.8.

- Hogs inventory are huge and China is doing everything it can not to source in the US( deals with Brazil...).
- The front of the curve is plunging and J/M seems overvalued.
- Seasonals.
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07-29-2019 : Converted it into a J/M/N butterfly. The curve is showing there might be some big demand next year, so this has a better R/R.
 
TraDaToR said:
07/07/2019 : Short MWU19 / KWU19 @ 93.4.

- KW N/U went crazy yesterday and the feed demand of KW should pick up.
- HRS conditions increased yesterday and the stocks are plentiful.
- Seasonals.
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07/30/2019 : Out @ 97.25.:(
 
TraDaToR said:
Pretty bad day for me.

06/28/19 : I shorted some ZC U19-Z19 @ -5.75( No... I didn't catch the spike ).

- It got less beaten than other spreads because it is the most sensitive to old crop lower stocks but new crop higher acreage...
- USDA just announced a resurvey because these acreages include Prevent plant acres.
-Seasonals.
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08/07/2019 : Out @ -8.25.
 
In anticipation of this, a few days ago, I bought Sep 410 corn calls for 5 7/8. They've done well so far, nearly doubling, but I am holding on as a bit of a gamble on the WASDA report.

Lets see how this pans out.
 
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