Ag trade ideas

Hello Overnight, as Rachmaninov said, it is a no event IMO. Japan already buys most of its ag products in the US. What caught my attention on the other side is that PF crop tour came out with 163 bpa yield Vs USDA at 169. I am on vacation so I didn't go deeper but some spreads might be cheap...I don't konw for outrights.
 
TraDaToR said:
08/16/2019 : Short CC U20/Z20 @ 9.

- The front of the curve is sinking after July run up.
- Good weather and crop conditions in West Africa.
-Seasonality.
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Out @ 27. I closed it partly because I am in vacation in Alaska with limited access to internet, but I should simply stop trading cocoa. My results over years are terrible.
 
TraDaToR said:
My results over years are terrible.
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I'm glad I am not the only one. I opened a long future + protective put in the Z19 (but puts expired on 06-Sep) when CC fell to around 2350 in early Aug, cos I thought it was oversold. Of course, the commodity continued to fall and fall for a consecutive 15 odd days. I had to close out last Fri for a big loss.

I think CC is a good trend following underlying, but it's not the trading technique that I have used much, so maybe I need to change my strategy on this.
 
TraDaToR said:
06/11/2019 : Short ZC H20/K20 @ -4.5, mainly as a hedge because I was too heavily long corn.

- H/K is overvalued compared to Z/H and K/N.
- Good chance USDA won't cut yields tomorrow, especially since crop conditions appear OK ( for the acres emerged...)
- US companies are starting to buy corn abroad apparently.
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09/11/2019 : Out @ -8.75. Oversold on the curve + WASDE tomorrow. Good trade.
 
09/24/2019 : Short HE Z/G/J fly @ -0.6.

- Chinese delegation cancelled, Huge killing numbers in prevision of ASF demand.
- V/Z and index in a black hole.
-Seasonality.
 
TraDaToR said:
08/12/19 : Big WASDE trades so far :

- Short ZC U20/Z20 @ 6.75 on ending stocks and seasonality. 8 seconds after the WASDE came online.
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09/27/19 : Out @ -5. Went 1 tick from my target at -8.25, but still a good trade.
 
TraDaToR said:
08/22/2019 : Long ZC N20/U20 @ -1.5 over the last few days.

- The crop tour is showing that even if it is better than originally thought, this crop is far from good and an early frost can be devastating.
- ZC N20/U20 is lower than ZC N19/U19 at this time last year with the huge crop.
- Corn should gain acres next year which should pressure intercrop U.
-N/U way oversold on the curve.
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09/30/19 : Out @ -2 for a breakeven. Afraid of today's report and finally no frost happened.
 
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