Ag trade ideas

[TraDaToR]

08/12/19 : Big WASDE trades so far :

- Short ZC U20/Z20 @ 6.75 on ending stocks and seasonality. 8 seconds after the WASDE came online.
- Liquidated the rest of my long ZC K20/N20 @ -6
- Went long ZO Z/H @ -4 on U/Z strength and reduced ending stocks.

 

[TraDaToR]

Short CT H20/N20 @ 0.65.

- New crop spreads rallied a bit too much based on planting intentions.
- Cotton plantings advance seems normal.
- Seasonals.

08/13/2019 : Out @ -2.25. Z/H is getting strong and we are at a 10 year low.

 

[TraDaToR]

08/15/2019 : Went long Feeders U/X @ -0.9.

- Q/U strength.
- Corn bearish.
- Feeder index higher.
-Seasonality.

 

[TraDaToR]

For whoever reads this, that -4 Oats Z/H iceberg offer looks like free money, check U/Z...

 

[TheMilkMan]

That's my coworker

 

[ffs1001]

For whoever reads this, that -4 Oats Z/H iceberg offer looks like free money, check U/Z

I'm reading this, and I'm looking at the U/Z spread - that seems to have risen about 10 points in the last fortnight. However, I do not understand how this relates to Z/H, which seems flat.
As you stating that Z/H is likely to follow the upward path like U/Z?

 

[TraDaToR]

I'm reading this, and I'm looking at the U/Z spread - that seems to have risen about 10 points in the last fortnight. However, I do not understand how this relates to Z/H, which seems flat.
As you stating that Z/H is likely to follow the upward path like U/Z?

Oats is mostly harvested in late August/early september, which means that U is the new crop even if Z is more liquid. After the report, the front month spread went immediately up, even if ( IMO ) it was only slightly bullish. So there must be something brewing in the physical market. Anyway, on a thinly traded contract like this, expiries tend to follow the previous one, so...

 

[TraDaToR]

So if that -4 offer is not Mr Quaker himself, I don't know how it would stand there... Don't blame me though if you lose...I am losing as well...

 

[ffs1001]

Are you looking at what orders at available in the market for that spread? Forgive my ignorance - I'm using IB's TWS front-end - how would I see the same info?

 

[TraDaToR]

Do you pay for CBOT with IB? I am an IB customer as well as a back up/equities broker, If you don't pay, you don't have the real quotes. But the market is closed now... On monday, if you want to buy it, you have to sell it on IB... IB spreads are inverted. they quote -Front/+Deferred.