Ag trade ideas

Cat88 said:
So you're thinking it will put on a decent rally from here? USDBRL is roughly driving sideways for most of last year and i can't really see too much more negative news from brasil actually moving the rate too much. Certainly can imagine USD moving higher on the rate hike scenario/inflation fears, so that would be bearish for the price in USD terms, also make brasilian coffee more attractive to flood the market, no? the commercials being the only ones long is certainly bullish i agree and it seems to have held at this level or thereabouts for a while - where are you looking for on the upside?
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I was also looking at KC. Monster technical pattern from 2010. Downward triangle something.
If it goes through it could be explosive. However, weather seems to be good in the brazilian growing region.

Commercials are not long but neutral. Index funds are the long (options + futures).
 
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Anyway, it's not a trade you should be preemptively plowing your life savings into but it is something that people should be watching - because convexity is to the upside here.
 
Rachmaninov said:
I was also looking at KC. Monster technical pattern from 2010. Downward triangle something.
If it goes through it could be explosive. However, weather seems to be good in the brazilian growing region.

Commercials are not long but neutral. Index funds are the long (options + futures).
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so you're also thinking of a potentially explosive break to the downside of the support through 111? or are you referring to 100 (roughly as the support level)?

Thinking about both sets of comments (@i960 and @Rachmaninov) has helped me clarify what i want to do, I want to buy an explosion position, cheap OTM puts and calls for the next couple of expiries which only pay off if there's a big move. otherwise will just be a cheap way to prevent me getting caught outright long or short.
 
I think @Rachmaninov is thinking along the same lines, that the convexity is on the upside not the downside. I mean what's coffee going to do, break down to 90 cents/lb on the absolute best crop ever even though its been low for years now?

There is downside risk of course (otherwise price wouldn't be here), but it seems like the real risk is to the upside (coupled with an inflationary environment as well).
 
i960 said:
I think @Rachmaninov is thinking along the same lines, that the convexity is on the upside not the downside. I mean what's coffee going to do, break down to 90 cents/lb on the absolute best crop ever even though its been low for years now?

There is downside risk of course (otherwise price wouldn't be here), but it seems like the real risk is to the upside (coupled with an inflationary environment as well).
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Ok thanks @i960 appreciate the clarification. Main thing is I don't want to go outright on futures and I need to get out my view via options instead to better manage my risk.
 
TraDaToR said:
Out ZL @ 31.41. That was my last outright in the book and a loser of course.
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Well at least you didn't miss out on that move in cocoa last night after being 8 contracts long and getting out at 2488.

Didn't follow my original plan to take half and leave the rest on to deal with my fear of missing out.

Well at least I'm a step closer to what I'm trying to do but f*** it burns to miss out
 
Out of short sugar last night. roughly 12.40, entry at 12.66 so small profit on 1 contract but the main point for me was the price is just taking ages to get through the bottom of the bullish candle from the 19th of March and there have been so many volatile days in this recently i'm not keen to get wiped out. bought some 14.50 May contract calls which i expect will expire worthless but given how unpredictable sugar has been recently it's just a cheap punt.
 
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