Ag trade ideas

[Cat88]

Sugar starting to turn nasty

The charts are really starting to turn ugly for sugar.

The unusual event on the 27th and 28th of January aside the market attempted to re-establish a position above 13.50 with the support which had previously held at the level not providing any protection this time.

I had thought that the market was just taking out the stops but the considerable amount of work the bulls have done to try and resurrect a rally was snuffed out on the 31st of January and the 8th of February.

They seem to be doing well but slowly like a boa constrictor tightening it's grip on the airways the bulls have run out of life and I suspect a big move to the downside could be underway.

I'm just looking at how to get short and the 40 day moving average is today at 13.37.

Target on the downside initially would be 10.20 and below that a long-term support line comes in around 8.10 before we start looking at the low from April 1999.

Short 1 SBK18 @ 0.1264

 

[TraDaToR]

Short CC U18/H19 @ 24.

-Seasonality
-Good level amid overbought bullish fundamentals

 

[Rachmaninov]

I agree on CC U18/H19

I just went into long Cocoa UK/short Cocoa US
Excellent level

 

[i960]

I’m not bailing from my outright cocoa longs until it hits the 2800 area. GBP is not weak and that’s definitely aiding this move.

As far as wheat goes. I bailed from my KE long earlier today (in the nick of time apparently). To anyone else holding wheat I think it’s gunning for that gap.

 

[Cat88]

I’m not bailing from my outright cocoa longs until it hits the 2800 area. GBP is not weak and that’s definitely aiding this move.

As far as wheat goes. I bailed from my KE long earlier today (in the nick of time apparently). To anyone else holding wheat I think it’s gunning for that gap.

do you mean the gap at 470?

 

[i960]

do you mean the gap at 470?

Yes and 480 in KC wheat. I could see it stomping through that gap, collecting liquidity as longs bail, and then making a move up again. It’s just what markets do.

 

[TraDaToR]

I’m not bailing from my outright cocoa longs until it hits the 2800 area. GBP is not weak and that’s definitely aiding this move.

As far as wheat goes. I bailed from my KE long earlier today (in the nick of time apparently). To anyone else holding wheat I think it’s gunning for that gap.

Sorry, but what were your entry points again?

 

[TraDaToR]

What do you think about KW/W, guys? I am still holding half my position. There will be precipitations tomorrow in KS/OK but at the same time, the spread level isn't really high hystorically for a drought stressed crop.

 

[Cat88]

@TraDaToR
fundamentals i'll leave the others to talk about but just on the price action i tend to agree with @i960 and that does not dissuade me from staying long for now. I assume that opportunistic traders/floor specialists/smaller funds make the most use of stop levels and so I accept there's going to be wash around the support / resistance levels as they try to run through, trip them off and make a bit more on the momentum.

bigger picture for me is that the price move through the 200 day was initially a very strong signal, the drop back through didn't look good but if it's going to be a big move i'm going to expect that.

so taking all that into account, I'd say it depends on what your stop/target is and your existing pnl on the trade. i wouldn't endanger overall pnl for the trade to hold on to it but if it's <30% profit you're risking and the target is significantly higher e.g. 550+ then paying 20pts to have a look on 30% of your profit doesn't seem like a bad risk reward to me, especially if there's no major (top tier) supply data or USD events to be published in the next few days/week. weather is only going to change gradually (in a negative way), there's clearly some significant interest to go long from the volume on the 200 DMA pop. anyway clearly i'm biased being long but yeah there's definitely an expectation price could drop down 15-20 cents before you know whether it's a genuine long signal. is that worth it? depends on your own pnl equation.

 

[TraDaToR]

What do you think about KW/W, guys? I am still holding half my position. There will be precipitations tomorrow in KS/OK but at the same time, the spread level isn't really high hystorically for a drought stressed crop.

Out @ 25.75 the other half. Average out @ 30. Entered @ 4. Wasn't the worst trade but should have liquidated the last half earlier.