A message to some day traders.

[Amahrix]

IMO Sheep = those who believe in luck.

Oh look out for the black cat ............ after the sheep!

Your very existence is a product of luck. We’re... lucky to be alive...

The odds of winning the lottery is against you, astronomically & with negative EV. A lottery ticket winner is lucky to have won.

Some people have better genes overall than other people, and they’re lucky to inherit that.

You continue to ignore the elephant in the room.

I am not saying it’s either all luck or all skill but that luck plays a role.

 

[Amahrix]

@SunTrader Kindly..

If someone is risking ruin, and/or trading with negative EV(which is the same as ruin..), are they lucky when they experience gains whilst on their path to (guaranteed) financial ruin?

Remember: Trading with negative EV = the more you trade(increase frequency), the closer you’ll get to ruin, because you’re losing on average and eventually lose it all. And the longer you’re exposed to risk of ruin, the likelier it is that you’ll be ruined as time passes. With this being said, it is a statistical fact that they’ll lose their money.

Once this trader hits ruin (which is a statistical fact), should he consider the gains he experienced on his path to ruin to be attributed to skill.. or luck?

 

[Overnight]

@SunTrader Kindly..

If someone is risking profit, and/or trading with positive EV(which is the same as profit..), are they unlucky when they experience losses whilst on their path to (guaranteed) financial profit?

Remember: Trading with positive EV = the less you trade(decrease frequency), the closer you’ll get to profit, because you’re winning on average and eventually win it all. And the shorter you’re exposed to risk of gain, the likelier it is that you’ll be profitable as time passes. With this being said, it is a statistical fact that they’ll win their money.

Once this trader hits gain (which is not a statistical fact), should he consider the losses he experienced on his path to profit to be attributed to skill.. or luck?

Sorry, I had to reverse everything in your quote to read it fresh, see if I can make sense out of it.

 

[Amahrix]

Sorry, I had to reverse everything in your quote to read it fresh, see if I can make sense out of it.

No they’re not unlucky because they’ll never get wiped out. They’re taking chances and on average, they’ll be positive. They’re fully expecting to have losses but no loss will wipe them out.

You continue to mistake chance and luck.

ALSO, you wrote “trading with positive EV = the less frequently you trade, the closer you get to profit” which is wrong. Now I know you don’t know what you’re talking about. Law of large numbers goes hand in hand with expected value.

You’re committing Fallacy of the Converse.

 

[Amahrix]

I will soon show a Monte Carlo simulation which will calculate 1,000,000 paths and highlight how ALL 1,000,000 paths gains is attributed to luck not skill assuming risk of ruin/negative EV. You’ll see how someone can survive 3 years, just by sheer luck etc.(but fool themselves into thinking it’s skill).

 

[Overnight]

...
You continue to mistake chance and luck.

...

So do you. Luck is just chance that goes either IN your favor or OUT of it. It is how we define it. We win the lottery jackpot, and call it "luck". Serendipity or something.

They are really the same thing.

Chance is just that...Chance.

With skill, chance can be skewed in one's favor, when you are in control of the skew.

In a casino, the skew is controlled by the proprietors. So your chances of making profits are low. No skill will help you in pulling the lever of the slot machine.

In trading, with skill, you can skew your chances of making profits turn in your favor.

 

[Amahrix]

With skill, chance can be skewed in one's favor, when you are in control of the skew.

If you’re still risking ruin, it doesn’t matter if chance is in your favor(must factor in payoff). You’ll still be ruined, in due time. And all the gains you got are attributed to luck.

They’re not the same thing, hence why we have 2 different words in the English lexicon.

In trading, with skill, you can skew your chances of making profits turn in your favor.

If risking ruin or trading with negative EV, all those profits are attributed to luck.

 

[Overnight]

It's just going to come down to arguing about how the two words are or are not mutually exclusive.

Good luck and good bye.

 

[Amahrix]

It's just going to come down to arguing about how the two words are or are not mutually exclusive.

Good luck and good bye.

2 words with 2 different meanings. Thanks for wishing me good luck, good luck to you too and good bye.

 

[SunTrader]

Taleb is a trader, Dalio is a trader, Marty O Connell is a trader and all wrote books.

Perhaps, you are just jealous.

Dalio IS a trader correct, who as someone previously mentioned and you skirted around, used TA extensively. Marty O'Connell whoTF is that? Taleb who cares. Nowadays he spends more time on a TV screen than in front a PC screen. Bet you don't miss a second of it either.