A message to some day traders.

There is no such thing as luck.

Chit happens good or bad.

There is skill and there isn't.

If there was a thing that actually existed called luck then which came first - for the person who is now skillful - the skill or the luck to become skilled? And round and round YOU go. I got off that ride long ago.

Taleb guessed right in Oct'87, now can't keep from going around and around. Since then he is Taleb the celeb (with groupies) book author. I listen to traders not authors.
 
Any consolidation pattern is more likely to break in the direction of the prior directional move thus not 50/50.
Well yes, in general you are right, taking all other factors out of consideration. But the longer the consolidation takes place, the greater the chance that probability is shifting to 50/50. Hence the picture might not have been the best example but you get the point.
 
Yeah, ET has a lot more theorists than actual traders but whatever.

Speedo, if you’re implying that I’m a theorist more than an actual trader then you’re wrong. I learned everything I’ve learned precisely because I am a trader.
 
You know what happens to people that does such on social media while using their real names ?

Their bosses, those that pays them an income or those that gives them a title...gets complaints about their social media postings. It then results in the person being discipline, fired or forced to take a leave of absence without pay. That's why those that behave like that will use an anonymous user name.

I'm sure you watch TV or read social media websites to know the above commonly happens.

Therefore, they must change their public (social media) image if they wish to continue using their real names via stopping the name calling, personal attacks, tongue in cheek commentary and so on OR they can continue being rude, distasteful with the intellectual persona via an anonymous user name. Many choose the latter (anonymous user name).

Something else to remember, the forum owner allows these types of threads. I get it because they really are harmless and a waste of time to some while useful to others in that they become newly aware of Nassim Taleb, Steven Pinker and many other names mentioned in this thread. That's a good thing.

In contrast, other forum owners would not have allowed these types of threads to proceed further beyond 3 - 10 pages. That's why its best to start these types of threads at ET and not somewhere else like Futures.io and a few others.

You should also stop asking him to prove his trading. Instead, ask him to use his real name...you'll then understand all of the above what I stated about the consequences of this type of behaviour while using your real name. He will decline to use his real name. :D

Regardless, at some point the debate, arguments, attacks begin to take the shape of a mental disorder. You then need to make a decision to continue debating within that new shape or use this forum for what it is...

To try to make money / improve your trading. Like I've stated a few times in this thread, the forum has seen these types of threads before many times in the past. It may be one of the reasons why its currently tolerated.

padutrader
, seriously, don't be offended by this thread nor the author of this thread. Take a deep breadth, don't take it personally via letting you become like the author with the name calling and tongue in cheek like commentary because someone disagrees with him.

Those that lose their emotional cool by threads like this says a lot about the person as a trader. Simply, no proof / verification needed.

Take care and have a good day in trading. My last comments in this thread.

wrbtrader

Since the start of this thread, we’ve had a handful of commentators fixated on finding out who I am. Searching me on google, thinking I am other users and hiding behind this name, so on and so forth.

I find it hilarious.

If only such individuals spent this energy to disprove what I’ve posited........
 
Well yes, in general you are right, taking all other factors out of consideration. But the longer the consolidation takes place, the greater the chance that probability is shifting to 50/50. Hence the picture might not have been the best example but you get the point.

We talked about this, they’re practically incomputable.
 
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