A message to some day traders.

Amahrix said:
yikes, you've made it clear that you don't know what luck is.

Walton family... creates baby, baby gets inherited a billion dollars. We say, wow.. lucky baby. From my perspective, that's exactly what it is. Of course, only God knows WHY that specific baby was destined to be birthed into a billion dollar inheritance.
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What nonsense.

At least anyone that says that with a straight face.

And yet you think the markets are ... random.
 
SunTrader said:
Funny you quote (and worship at the temple of) Talib ad nauseam but drop names of Buffett, Simons, Cooperman, Munger on luck ... without so much as a single word quoted.

Could it be because they (btw Cooperman has been known to use TA now and then, ask Tom DeMark) refer to their lot in life and not to particular modes of operation?
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Simons talking about luck in his trading: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srbQzrtfEvY

Buffet believes in luck: "Buffett says key to his success is luck" https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/04/warren-buffett-says-the-key-to-his-success-is-luck.html

Cooperman: "I made my fortune thanks to luck and common sense" https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/17/leo...-fortune-thanks-to-luck-and-common-sense.html

Munger on luck: "While you can be the most deserving and intelligent person, "there's also a factor of luck that comes into this thing," he says." https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-apos-partner-charlie-165400106.html

And ofc Taleb (Fooled by Randomness: The hidden role of chance in life and in the markets).

Move along. These people identify luck one way or another and accept its role in life.
 
SunTrader said:
What nonsense.

At least anyone that says that with a straight face.

And yet you think the markets are ... random.
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They're random and not random, at the same time. Market's contain incomplete information to us. Ever heard of a black swan? Do you know its properties? It occurs randomly, it is unpredictable in nature (you cannot see it in the data). Randomness is embedded in the very fabric of markets. Idiot.

Example: If you observe 10,000 white swans, it does not confirm that black swans don't exist. Therefore, no matter how much data you can look at, you cannot predict the future with certainty. You'll always have incomplete information, hence a degree of randomness. More so in shorter time periods, less so in longer, but nevertheless, it exists at all scales.
 
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To the turkey, everyday looks like the past, he has no idea when his head is going to get chopped off.

The butcher knows exactly when he is going to kill the turkey.

To the butcher, turkey's doomsday was not random but planned.

To the turkey, it was random.

Try not to be the f*cking turkey!

MAKES SENSE? @volpri @SunTrader @padutrader

I present to you... the problem of induction.

@maxinger Makes sense Max?

@d08 makes sense????

@wrbtrader Makes sense?

@bpr got it?

@Overnight do you have a YT video for this?!

@themickey

@ZTrader888 makes sense??????

@CharlesS got it?

@Real Money makes sense ?!
@LS1Z28 MAKES SENSE?

@comagnum You seem nice, you see what I am saying now?

@ironchef Whats up bro, you see now?

@Wheezooo You see now?!

@Peter10 You see what I am saying?
 
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Amahrix said:
Simons talking about luck in his trading: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srbQzrtfEvY
.......
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Just liked Fooled by Randomness I had already googled those guys and read each of the writeups, not just your quoted one line snapshots. Context matters. They are also all "trying" to be modest. When you have billions you can be pretend to be modest. Grandfatherly Midwestern values Buffett is especially a master at that.

Naive know it alls lap it up.
 
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Amahrix said:
They're random and not random, at the same time..
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Except Black Swans are so rare, if you listen to the "experts", they shouldn't even happen - but for at least 10000 years apart. LOL

BTW does Taleb resort to name calling as often as you or just every Black Swan?
 
SunTrader said:
Except Black Swans are so rare, if you listen to the "experts", they should even happen. Does Taleb resort to name calling as often as you?
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Your first sentence makes no sense. Please edit and rewrite.

You listen to experts? It is part of nature, black swans is a property that will always stick with us. They are not always to the downside. Rise of internet was a black swan, google was a black swan, sadly 9/11 was a black swan, discovery of penicillin was black swan, same with viagra (both made by accident), and many more.
 
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