A message to some day traders.

[Amahrix]

Being the aspiring critical thinker that you are, you would know that this example is a false equivalence when compared to the market.

Your beliefs have fossilized your thinking and will continue to affect your perception to further your pov.


As for the turkey, it's either conscious or isn't not.

If it's conscious, then at the moment after death it will have retained it's consciousness or not.

In either case death doesn't exist from the viewpoint of turkey consciousness.

If it's consciousness did not exist the moment after death, then all it knew was being alive.

If it's consciousness did exist the moment after death then death was not the ending of consciousness thus death of consciousness does not exist.


Beliefs are like turkeys.

The market is like the butcher.

The map is not the territory.

Everything that you have been arrogantly espousing is a map.

The market being the butcher would confirm efficient market hypothesis because the market would know everything when in reality, it doesn’t. Look at its erratic, unpredictable behavior from time to time. Market gets butchered all the time, at the individual stock level, as well as, at the market level.

Market is sum of human belief, and gets butchered by reality. Weak die, strong survive.

 

[Overnight]

...

@Overnight do you have a YT video for this?!
...

Of course I do, but it is too depressing to post here.

So I sent you a PM of it.

 

[comagnum]

Been through a few black swans/shocks already. Here again, I use a strong risk mgmt strategy using a small portion of my capital to ride winners, the losers are cut quickly. I always have a lot of 'dry powder' to clean up on the fat tails.

The fat tails often print the same bottoming pattern(price & volume) as they have historically. Charts show human behavior, and the bewildered herds behavior does not change over time. Good traders exploit the mistakes made by the herd at the big turns.

The chart patterns of price/volume give me an edge over the herd in timing my entries and limiting risk to a factor many multiples less than the potential reward. Not always right, in that case its a small loss on onto the next opportunity.

2009 Subprime fat-tail. QQQ prints a text book double bottom. Volume & puts decrease sharply on the 2nd test. Those with good risk mgmt & charting skills can clean up big time on fat tails trading in all time frames - I sure have.

 

[volpri]

Listen sonny boy I believe in induction. See I induct my own wins and losses not lady chance, lady luck, fat tails..skinny tails or any other kind of tail...you name it. All my wins and my losses are personally inducted by ME! I am responsible for them. I and I alone created them. I, myself, and no other human being, bring about, or give rise to my wins and losses. Yes, there are pressures in the market and those pressures move it but in the final analysis it is I, and I alone, who must read the PA right and make my choices. Therefore, I and ONLY I am responsible for EVERY win and every loss. THE BUCK STOPS WITH ME! Not some mystical invisible supposed force called luck or fate.

Of course, I might say; consider yourself lucky that I and other intelligent people here are keeping your thread going or it would have succumbed to a terrible fate long ago. Your welcome.

 

[Amahrix]

Listen sonny boy I believe in induction. See I induct my own wins and losses not lady chance, lady luck, fat tails..skinny tails or any other kind of tail...you name it. All my wins and my losses are personally inducted by ME! I am responsible for them. I and I alone created them. I, myself, and no other human being, bring about, or give rise to my wins and losses. Yes, there are pressures in the market and those pressures move it but in the final analysis it is I, and I alone, who must read the PA right and make my choices. Therefore, I and ONLY I am responsible for EVERY win and every loss. THE BUCK STOPS WITH ME! Not some mystical invisible supposed force called luck or fate.

Of course, I might say; consider yourself lucky that I and other intelligent people here are keeping your thread going or it would have succumbed to a terrible fate long ago. Your welcome.

Do you credit luck for your existence or was that the work of your own doing as well? If you're a believer of God, which I am, I am lucky that He chose to create me, it was not my own doing. Even if not, luck continues to be pervasive in life and in markets. Move along.

If your strategy carries risk of ruin, like @padutrader , every dollar you earn is directly a result of luck. That's the end between me and you. MAKES SENSE?

 

[wrbtrader]

To the turkey, everyday looks like the past, he has no idea when his head is going to get chopped off.

The butcher knows exactly when he is going to kill the turkey.

To the butcher, turkey's doomsday was not random but planned.

To the turkey, it was random.

Try not to be the f*cking turkey!

MAKES SENSE? @volpri @SunTrader @padutrader @maxinger @d08 @wrbtrader @bpr @Overnight @themickey @ZTrader888 @cha @soulfire @VPhantom @Ashk @tommcginnis @ElectricSavant @Nobert @greggraz @TheBigShort @S-Trader @tomorton @lindq @Scataphagos @speedo @dozu888 @Option_Attack @gaussian @Evermore2017 @T-Mex @MKTrader @jl1575 @jayboy @piezoe @imjohn @R1234 @expiated @Steve Alexander @Buy1Sell2 @marc82much @Evermore2017

and anybody else who has contributed...

I present to you... the problem of induction. Strategies based only on inductive reasoning like strats most day trading TA players use... it don't work, “sonny”! Now you can see how luck absolutely has played a major role thus far their earnings!

I would rather be the butcher or a person that loves to eat Turkey and use the stats like yours to determine when is the ideal time / age / weight of the Turkey to have juicy meat with fry bread as a meal.

wrbtrader

 

[Amahrix]

I would rather be the butcher or a person that loves to eat Turkey and use the stats like yours to determine when is the ideal time / age / weight of the Turkey to have juicy meat with fry bread as a meal.

wrbtrader

You cannot play butcher, you are not in control of reality. You can't determine right time/age/weight, but you can be ready to eat if you prepare for the possibility of seeing this day. (You'll have to sit around... for a long time, so you may need to eat other things in the meantime). Apply this analogy to markets. Makes sense now?!

 

[Amahrix]

Listen sonny boy I believe in induction. See I induct my own wins and losses not lady chance, lady luck, fat tails..skinny tails or any other kind of tail...you name it. All my wins and my losses are personally inducted by ME! I am responsible for them. I and I alone created them. I, myself, and no other human being, bring about, or give rise to my wins and losses. Yes, there are pressures in the market and those pressures move it but in the final analysis it is I, and I alone, who must read the PA right and make my choices. Therefore, I and ONLY I am responsible for EVERY win and every loss. THE BUCK STOPS WITH ME! Not some mystical invisible supposed force called luck or fate.

Of course, I might say; consider yourself lucky that I and other intelligent people here are keeping your thread going or it would have succumbed to a terrible fate long ago. Your welcome.

You take your knowledge too seriously. Witnessing a train wreck. You dig yourself in all kinda holes. I can’t imagine what you do in the markets.

Tell me you love me.

 

[wrbtrader]

You cannot play butcher, you are not in control of reality. You can't determine right time/age/weight, but you can be ready to eat if you prepare for the possibility of seeing this day. (You'll have to sit around... for a long time, so you may need to eat other things in the meantime). Apply this analogy to markets. Makes sense now?!

In my culture that's exactly what we do with our meat...we look at the age, weight and time of year of the animal.

Further, I would never apply traditional eating habits of my culture with the markets...hopefully you'll understand how I process info.

wrbtrader

 

[Amahrix]

In my culture that's exactly what we do with our meat.

Further, I would never apply traditional eating habits of my culture with the markets...hopefully you'll understand how I process info.

wrbtrader

I’m disappointed in you. All the best.