it need not repeat but logically some things are likely to follow from certain market conditions....good traders play the odds and keep it in their favor
A message to some day traders.
- Thread starter Amahrix
- Start date
The money that's lost doesn't move into a vacuum. The money is just changing hands. Of course money can be made. The question is can it be made consistently. The 10% that I spoke of apparently are making money consistently. But then there's the 90% who are losing. That's a huge imbalance. Even if only 2% were consistently making money, it still demonstrates that there's some structure, setup, pattern - whatever you want to call it - that consistently is profitable. That shows that market data is not random regardless how obscure that structure, setup, pattern is.
DAMN RIGHT WELL PUT
that is what i have been saying everyone is not losing money...that is impossible
Basic logic tells you that the odds of a balanced coin landing on heads or tails is 50/50. Even if you flip it and it lands on heads 99 times in a row, the odds are still 50/50 that it will land on tails on the 100th flip.
You are analyzing the trend that the coin has landed on heads 99 times in a row, and you're using that trend to predict what will happen on the 100th flip. Why do you believe in TA when it comes to flipping a coin, but not when it comes to trading?
ROFLMAO and reading Taleb might make you more susceptible to seeing little of nothing! LOLYou have yet to cease to amaze me. Are you guys...high? Did you know smoking marijuana and the subsequent increase in dopamine levels make you more susceptible to seeing patterns in the clouds?
Ping: @comagnum
T
T-Mex
Market makers transact based on inventory and mathematical models, their decisions aren't random.
Commercials transact based on their business requirements, their decisions aren't random.
Asset allocators transact based on capital inflows and outflows to maintain a portfolio weighted to certain assets and asset classes, those allocation decisions and timing aren't random.
Professional traders transact to comply with their risk profile and capture certain market effects which aren't random e.g. news dissemination, arbitrage opportunities.
Underfunded amateur traders often transact based on emotions - irrational but somewhat predictable and certainly not random.
If the vast majority of activity by volume / notional value is driven by non-random processes how can the market be considered random? I don't see any reasoning in support of that.
He does listen to others view point. Yet, some of them he doesn't agree with their view point.
That may be the reason why he does not want to put some on "ignore" because the ignore feature will imply one thing only...he's not going to listen to their view point.
He clearly has a goal to gather as much interest as possible for whatever reason. Its why he uses bold fonts (do not forget), capitalization (shouting) and the combination of small font with bold fonts (I'm not sure...a possibility).
Later, he loses his cool via name calling and other personal attacks when he comes across someone that not only will not change their support of technical analysis...someone that will use the same tactic but intentionally in an uneducated way.
He's greatly offended by the latter above but the recent few references by him about his thread view count is what caught my eye that I've concluded he's Narcissistic and has a connection with Taleb.
Another thing that caught my eye was his response about not wanting this thread to diverge into other topics.
Reality, this is a public discussion forum...its common place for threads to diverge into other topics. Seriously, I've seen threads start about technical analysis and the remainder 1/2 of the thread is about Politics, F1 racing, Vietnam, Gaming (call of duty) and many other discussions that the thread starter would consider to be off-topic. Forum owner does not care as long as people are still posting and viewing the thread.
A little trick that works when other topics begin...the OP (thread starter) should not interact with those topics and continue staying on the topic that initiated the thread.
Back to the question about Taleb connection, that's actually not a bad thing (connection with Taleb) because Amahrix has a clear objective that I've seen him write about at least once in this thread. The purpose is to convince at least one person that will share his viewpoint that the markets are random and the constant reference to the book Fooled by Randomness Nassim Taleb as a good read. Ok...that's two objectives.
He may not achieve the goal he stated (change the viewpoint of one person) but he will find others that share the same viewpoint...considering there's been other threads here in the past about the fallacy of technical analysis and random in the markets.
You really need to read the background of Nassim Nicholas Taleb to better understand the user name Amahrix.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nassim_Nicholas_Taleb
Now, there should be a natural question. What's the connection between Amahrix with Nassim Nicholas Taleb considering both are well educated, steadfast in their beliefs as if its religious, uses very similar like words in their attacks on those that do not share the same belief and both care about the numbers of their audience (viewers).
I think the above would be a valid question considering its normal practice for book authors to gauge social media about the interest in their books. They do this via assumed user names.
I myself became aware of Nassim Nicholas Taleb via an article about someone else named Steven Pinker back in 2015 @ https://www.vox.com/2015/5/21/8635369/pinker-taleb
Just as interesting, I forgot about the name Steven Pinker (due to a serious illness) but was reminded about him later when Warren Buffet and Bill Gates recommended his book "Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress @ https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/07/warren-buffett-and-bill-gates-recommend-enlightenment-now.html?__source=twitter|main
wrbtrader
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All the people you have sumed up here, act on their own decision making, maybe influenced by one or another. The reason it is random, is because you can not know in advance who will be your counter trader and what size he or she is willing to bring to the table. It takes one person, that decides that they are going to sell or buy with big size, that can take all the calculation of what is going to happen to the trash. That is way it is random.