A message to some day traders.

Amahrix said:
If you encompass all knowledge, then you can see, understand, predict everything with 100% precision. To us, it is incomplete knowledge. It is random, to us.

The more you zoom out and add more time, the more signal you get.

Apple daily chart tells me nothing. 99% noise.

Apple yearly chart tells me something. 50% noise, 50% signal.

Still, you cannot predict future from past where it matters, the tails. This is because of the problem of induction.

You can observe 1,000 white swans but it doesn’t confirm that a black swan doesn’t exist.
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No but when I see that black swan bastard I’ll know it. And I’ll know what to do.
 
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ET forum will show different "view stats" to different traders as you can see via my stats its less than 9k view but still popular in the Trading section.

wrbtrader
 

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padutrader said:
you keep quoting him but ignoring millions of books that say money can be made in trading.
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This is implying that I said money cannot be made in trading. And I never said that, nor does Nassim.

Strawman, you never cease to amaze me.
 
wrbtrader said:
Huge big people are members of this forum and argue with words or anywhere else online. In fact, you should check out the health & fitness threads here at ET...some have posted their body builder like physique in photos of themselves. They don't look like individuals that will be intimidated.

marketsurfer (real user name) or surf (nickname) was a controversial former ET member that attacked day trading, attacked technical analysis, attacked vendors, attacked anyone that posted education info about their trade method and he often hijacked threads.

He was controversial because he was using technical analysis including recommending it at other locations outside of this ET forum. Just as controversial because he supported & defended other vendors that did not post here at ET forum (e.g. Timothy Sykes) including vendors that used technical analysis.

In addition, he had a secret sauce called price drivers that he was unable to post any verification of the trades he said he took here at ET forum. Often he described the price drivers as "we" designed it and manage it. Sometimes talking about quantitative statistical analysis within the same sentence of using the word "quant" but never posting any verification of any performance stats.

Yet, I thought it was a joke when I heard the forum owner say you're verified if you use your real name here at ET in another discussion after the departure of marketsurfer.

marketsurfer used his real name (often) here at ET...David Goodboy. He left this forum after a huge trade loss in which he was hyping, defending the trade all the way to the bitter end. Prior to his departure...he became a vendor (book author) and promoted his book here at ET while briefly a sponsor here at the forum.

Also, he was former hedge fund owner or manager that lost peoples money. He now runs a non profit organization and he's now a cryptocurrency trader that posts on twitter. Yeah, initially he would bash others here at ET that got involved in cryptocurrency prior to his departure from ET. :rolleyes:

His posting style is unique and there's a certain way he used specific words...the OP of this thread does not have the same unique posting style as marketsurfer.

Famous quote I remember about marketsurfer...

I do not use technical analysis...I just like to look at charts for a reference about the price action.

wrbtrader
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Yes but he sported an enviable collection of Swiss watch knockoffs.
 
Amahrix said:
No more useless posts. Get back to the discussion, or unfollow the thread and get out. We're approaching almost 15,000 views on this thread including last week, and you're filling the last half with noise. Hah.
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you did not mention that you wanted only sensible posts.

i wanted to follow your lead and make stupid posts
 
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