8% drop in the next 14 days for the S&P 500

All I know is that this volatility is pure beauty....
I'll take a few hundred point swings on a daily basis....all those long term bull folks are sweating, once they get their monthly or quarterly statement and see their holdings down on the year they will probably have doubts about holding into the end of the year...
 
srinir said:
It should be 1.5%, not 2.5% or 3.5%
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I was just throwing out a random number :) - when I am sober, I can divide 24 by 16 relatively well :)

On a related note (to the topic, not my dinner), I just looked at where the crash cliquets are trading. These are OTC products - day-over-day put spreads that knock out if they ever hit - and 1 year 80/90 printed for 42bps on Friday.
 
S2007S said:
An 8% drop is not out of question

Traders after seeing 10 years worth of gains evaporating will most likely throw in the towel once further technical indicators start breaking down.....too many believe this bull market will keep going, however peak earnings, tariffs, 10 year building momentum, higher interest rates and stock buy backs slowing the bull market that's nearly a decade long will finally see a bear coming roaring in.
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You are the guy who forecast a 40-60% crash in US indexes was "imminent" approx. 3 years ago. US indexes instead went up 50%. There really is a rule that says a guy that perpetually calls for market crashes over many years is a fool that should just shut up. You are that guy on here.
 
Nine_Ender said:
You are the guy who forecast a 40-60% crash in US indexes was "imminent" approx. 3 years ago. US indexes instead went up 50%. There really is a rule that says a guy that perpetually calls for market crashes over many years is a fool that should just shut up. You are that guy on here.
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Thanks to all those delicious savory trillion dollar stock buy backs companies have been doing these last few years is the reason for the additional prop job in the markets.....without the buybacks my prediction would have rang extremely true but it didn't.... however it's just going to be that much worse when everything finally unwinds, a clean 30-40% drop is most certainly in the making! Why wait for the panic to sell when you can sell now and reap most of this decade long bull market.....
 
S2007S said:
Thanks to all those delicious savory trillion dollar stock buy backs companies have been doing these last few years is the reason for the additional prop job in the markets.....without the buybacks my prediction would have rang extremely true but it didn't.
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Only reality counts, all the rest is irrelevant. In short: you were wrong and who followed your advice would have missed a huge amount of money. Even if there would be a 30% crash now, those who stayed in their longs would still have more money then if they would have followed your advice as the market went up roughly 50% the last three years.

S2007S said:
however it's just going to be that much worse when everything finally unwinds, a clean 30-40% drop is most certainly in the making! Why wait for the panic to sell when you can sell now and reap most of this decade long bull market.....
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I remember Marketsurfer making this kind of predictions. He was wrong 6 times in a row. So you still have 4 times to go.
 
Nine_Ender said:
There really is a rule that says a guy that perpetually calls for market crashes over many years is a fool that should just shut up. You are that guy on here.
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Nah, the guy that calls for market crashes over many years and is poor is a fool. The guy who calls for market crashes and is rich (due to selling research or running a tail fund) is a smart marketer.
 
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You can analyse what happened past 100 years.
You can long or short or whatever over the next 14 days.

The more important question is

over the next 14 days,
are you going to earn tons and tons of money ? or
are you going to lose tons and tons of money ?
 
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