8% drop in the next 14 days for the S&P 500

prc117f said:
it predicts a single day 8% drop
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lets get this straight ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ which as i stated has only happened after lehmans collapse event and black friday event 87 in the last 70 years

As you can see here a 8% downmove in 10 days is relatively common but the conditions for a 8% single down day are almost once in a lifetime type events
ScreenShot1422.jpg
 
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Oh I missed "single day" drop of 8%, I thought 8% over 14 days.

In that case it is more than 5 standard deviation event (assuming Gaussian distro), which is pretty remote
 
For a daytrader as me , these threads are really funny. People discussing and breaking their head on what the market will do. As a daytrader I never have these problems. I only try to know what will happen in the next 15 minutes, and this only a few times a day, so not constantly. Most of the day I am just waiting... and posting on ET to kill the time...

And these last weeks are really golden weeks for daytraders. Big moves.
 
schweiz said:
For a daytrader as me , these threads are really funny. People discussing and breaking their head on what the market will do. As a daytrader I never have these problems. I only try to know what will happen in the next 15 minutes, and this only a few times a day, so not constantly. Most of tha day I am just waiting... and posting on ET to kill the time...
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Its a rare day to actually learn something here no doubt and yes its a time killer and not much else . Facts and evidence are a rare thing here and anywhere . Bit of fun
 
schweiz said:
For a daytrader as me , these threads are really funny. People discussing and breaking their head on what the market will do. As a daytrader I never have these problems. I only try to know what will happen in the next 15 minutes, and this only a few times a day, so not constantly. Most of the day I am just waiting... and posting on ET to kill the time...

And these last weeks are really golden weeks for daytraders. Big moves.
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Likewise for me as a long-term trend-follower. As I'm in the UK I can spreadbet the indices themselves. I hate shorting the US indices, it usually ends badly. But shorting the FTSE100 is often a viable option. Meanwhile I have also been shorting individual US and UK equities - these were the ones that were in solid downtrends even while the Dow was consistently bullish, and this has worked out really well. I have more sell orders below current levels to catch some more.

These threads are puzzling though. If you're a true investor, IMHO you should own shares for dividend income during your life and to put in your Will for your kids' benefit after your death. If you're not a life-long shareholder then you're a trader: and no share trader should be long equities now.
 
PistolPete said:
Its a rare day to actually learn something here no doubt and yes its a time killer and not much else . Facts and evidence are a rare thing here and anywhere . Bit of fun
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It's nice reading the trading banter, kind of comforting, enjoyable, like at a party, entertaining, litle skerricks of information now and again.
Every once in a while a stabbing, victim usually dies on ET, figuratively speaking.
 
I don't know about 14 days but 14 trading days actually seems viable for this once in a life time event to happen on some geopolitical event. The articles about this could be the bottom, we may see 20% up move etc. actually sounds like the bull market is pretty much over. But of course, who am I to be forecasting the future. I'm just happy the markets are moving these days.
 
sle said:
That's what happens when you are posting drunk from a family dinner :) Indeed, 2.5%, not 3.5%.
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Looks like you are still hung over or it was a fabulous dinner :D

It should be 1.5%, not 2.5% or 3.5%
 
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