8% drop in the next 14 days for the S&P 500

30667610487_b7b59f3aab_k.jpg

Classic confirmation bias , how about the 500 times this type of setup has failed , doesnt fit the narrative ? how about the market curb circuit breakers that now exist solely designed to prevent these events that are now in place . Different world . Heres some advice Black swans by their very nature are not predictable and if you actually luck out on the broken clock syndrome it will be the worst thing that can happen for you because you will actually believe you can do it . Profits not prophets . Lets see the 5% otm daily put option buys that you would have to be doing if you trully believe this hypothesis . Bet they dont exist
 
Nah, the guy that calls for market crashes over many years and is poor is a fool. The guy who calls for market crashes and is rich (due to selling research or running a tail fund) is a smart marketer.

It’s not about being right or wrong. It’s about how much you can earn on your view. personal alpha!
 
Remember 8% drop in a day does not mean the market closes 8%. I am predicting an 8% dip intraday. We have much more volatility to come. BTW look at SPY today we had a dip from 270 down to 259.85. Do the math, computer trading etc.. showing signs of distress another flash crash coming within the next 2 weeks.
 
Last edited:
S&P is already down 9% from recent highs. Another 8% is hard to fathom in this economic back-drop.
Where's the crisis ?


Hard to fathom???
Watch and see....the bull market is a decade old, how much do you want out of it, it's had it's time...there are cycles of ups and downs, however wallstreet doesn't believe in down, they believe only one way, up, and won't stop at anything to keep the bubble running...well every bull market comes to an end ....if this is the end just embrace it and make the best of the collapse that's coming!!!
 
Models completed just now, it predicts a single day 8% drop. My software does not do any trading, just prints out a list of trades with confidence levels assigned to them. Now its obviously not 100% and one reason I will quickly cut a trade that goes agsinst the thesis provided.

  1. No date provided just within 14 days. Interesting.
  2. 10 year note yield dropping thanks to flight to safety 3.07% lots of cash heading out the door.
  3. VIX in mid 20s expect 30s
  4. thin on the buy side.
  5. traders on edge wont take much to spook them, next week more flight to safety, mutual fund liquidations
  6. Equity markets overpriced future growth.
  7. Platinum down for the year.

Look at you now!:D
 
https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...y-dow-jones-industrial-average-up/1806293002/

Wall Street took investors on a wild ride Monday, with the Dow swinging more than 900 points before closing down for the day. The Standard & Poor's 500 also shifted violently but avoided ending in official "correction" territory.

S&P 500, which was up as much as 2 percent and fell nearly 4 percent from its high point for the day, closed down 0.7 percent at 2641.25 – or 9.9 percent off its Sept. 20 high. That left the index just shy of the 10 percent drop needed for a correction.
 
Back
Top