2012: The Battle for Survival

[neke]

Quote from Pension_Admin:

Relax, you don't have to shout that I am wrong. Maybe I am, maybe I am not.

So, out of your current loss, would you be able to tell what portion is related to commission, slippage, and trading decision? Are you going to minmize your commission and slipppage, or are you just accepting it as a rule and must obey? Could you make your own rules?

PA

Like I mentioned 19.4K is commission. Not easy to quantify, but I believe slippage accounts for more than the remainder of the loss this year (24K). Not trying to justify the performance, but to answer your question. (so if anyone is interested in taking the opposite side of my trade, too bad you will still lose as much ).

The key is of course trying to reduce number of trades and increase the quality of each. Concentrate only on higher than normal odds trades. That reduces both commission and slippage. I could also limit my option activity to only the ones with tightest spreads (like SPY or AAPL).

 

[PaulVl]

Quote from Pension_Admin:

Something is not right here.

Worst case scenario is that market is unpredictable---like a coin toss, which would give you the probability of winning and losing at around 50%.

If you compare your result to the coin toss result, you will know what you doing is actually worst than the coin toss.

You should stop everything and check your vig.

PA

lol

 

[colonial dr]

NEKE

Why do you continue to trade real money if you are not good at trading? It seems you are confused between a draw down and just a bad trader. No, bringing up an account for a short period with trades (others have said they were high risk options trades) does not mean you are a good trader.

I do not think you are in a draw down that will go away, I think you are a bad trader. You have shown some terrible procedures, such as ignoring news releases (I remember you saying this a couple pages back). You also made a GOOG options trade a couple weeks ago that was unbelievably bad. I know it's stressful, but that options trade (which you admitted was very dumb after it happened) is inexcusable.

Food for thought: if you would have been fired by a bank years back, why would you continue as a trader today?

I sincerely want to help, and I hope this helps. I would not chip in if I did not care.

Mike

 

[NeoRio1]

I searched the username neke because his journal was the only one i remembered reading a couple years ago. I started reading during his explosion of profits and kept reading for a while during his downfall. I wouldn't have ever guessed his account would be this drained. If neke hired a trader and the trader performed exactly the way he has he would have fired him over a year ago. The only problem is that he is completely unwilling to fire himself.

 

[artfartdart]

so many goddamn experts on this site. besides waiting for lescor to update once in a while, I have no idea why I keep reading this mindless drivel.

Quote from NeoRio1:

I searched the username neke because his journal was the only one i remembered reading a couple years ago. I started reading during his explosion of profits and kept reading for a while during his downfall. I wouldn't have ever guessed his account would be this drained. If neke hired a trader and the trader performed exactly the way he has he would have fired him over a year ago. The only problem is that he is completely unwilling to fire himself.

 

[unclebond555]

I dont know if you are using TD Ameritrade but if you are using Ameritrade you are gonna keep getting forked

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3303625#post3303625

 

[masterm1ne]

Quote from Pension_Admin:

The market is unpredictable...

U sir, have not spent a single day doing homework

 

[neke]

Weekly Update for week 38/50 ended 10/7/2012


Lacklustre week, down $858 (0.7%). Hope things pick up soon. Took out 4K for the month ended 9/30/2012.

Opening Balance:                	119,049
Net loss for the week 		           (858)
Cash Withdrawal				 (4,000)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance:                   		114,191


Since Inception of Thread   01/18/2012 - 10/7/2012

Opening Balance:                   	203,729
Net loss 			        (44,538)(Down 22%)
Cash Withdrawal				(45,000)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance				114,192

 

[Pekelo]

Just an observation: Your biggest losing weeks are bigger than your biggest weekly gains by 30%.

Quote from neke:

Like I mentioned 19.4K is commission. Not easy to quantify, but I believe slippage accounts for more than the remainder of the loss this year (24K). (so if anyone is interested in taking the opposite side of my trade, too bad you will still lose as much ).

That's a good point, but the opposite trader's account would have been up 20K at week 30, even accounting for slippage and commission. And at this point he would still be up 1-2K or so for the year... In other words, it is still profitable to fade you....
Or since your performance this year is inconsistent, wait for a good week and fade the next 2-3... This is based on the observed expected P/L, that your weekly loss is going to be 30% bigger than your weekly gain....

 

[colonial dr]

Neke, do you have plans if you get to 0? You are making withdrawals that are as big as your losses. That can't go on forever.

I hope I'm not being counterproductive, but because your capital is so low, the gains you are going to need to make just to stay alive with the withdrawals looks like they will need to be $60 k per year. That means your $114,000 will need to grow 53 % starting Monday. You couldn't do this 53% at the beginning of 2012 like you said, nor last year.

Just have some backup plans in case you hit 0. I am curious what you will do though-will you refill your account? At that point, you will be as pointless as a new trader who keeps refilling his IB account with $500 every 2 months. It seems like your denial is catching up.