2012: The Battle for Survival
- Thread starter neke
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As a day trader during RTH, these are the serious market movers:
FOMC Statement (also called Fed Statement) and FOMC Meeting Minutes
If you're day trading options through these events you can get hurt by liquidity and volatility factors, so I'd recommend checking a news calendar each week and noting these announcements when they appear.
Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) is another major market mover and is announced in pre-market the first Friday of each month. Pre-market trading is already risky because you can only use limit orders and liquidity can be poor, so I wouldn't recommend pre-market trading through a NFP release.
I've traded through all the other releases, but don't think I've ever held a position through the above because of the volatility and randomness of the initial moves.
Maybe not. Here is the summary from a recent (June 2012) paper, entitled "The Pre-FOMC Announcement Drift": "... a staggering 80% of the annual U.S. equity premium since 1994 was earned in the 24 hours before FOMC announcements".
Source: http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr512.pdf
Weekly Update for week 36/50 ended 9/22/2012
Negative week, down 3.3K (2.4%). Lost money, made it back, lost again to end the week.
Negative week, down 3.3K (2.4%). Lost money, made it back, lost again to end the week.
Code:
Opening Balance: 134,647
Net loss for the week 3,283
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Net Balance: 131,364
Since Inception of Thread 01/18/2012 - 9/22/2012
Opening Balance: 203,729
Net loss (31,365)(Down 15.4%)
Cash Withdrawal (41,000)
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Net Balance 131,364Weekly Update for week 37/50 ended 9/29/2012
Ugly week, down 12.3K (9.4%). Lost on 9 out of 11 trades. Bizarre. Began the month with a monster week, but everything went downhill from there. For the four weeks, lost 7K against expected gain of 4K. For the next 5 weeks (Sep 29 - oct 3), expectation is being set at +6K, with the arrival of earnings season. Sizing down and taking extreme care now.
Ugly week, down 12.3K (9.4%). Lost on 9 out of 11 trades. Bizarre. Began the month with a monster week, but everything went downhill from there. For the four weeks, lost 7K against expected gain of 4K. For the next 5 weeks (Sep 29 - oct 3), expectation is being set at +6K, with the arrival of earnings season. Sizing down and taking extreme care now.
Code:
Opening Balance: 131,364
Net loss for the week 12,315
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Net Balance: 119,049
Since Inception of Thread 01/18/2012 - 9/29/2012
Opening Balance: 203,729
Net loss (43,680)(Down 21%)
Cash Withdrawal (41,000)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance 119,049
Its called Expectancy.
However expectancy is an average, and you rarely make the average. So he needs to think something along the lines of 'i will average 5K a week, in a bad week i will lose 5K, in a good week i will make 15K, most other weeks i will make or lose something in between these figures, i expect to profitable in 60% of all weeks'.
His exact stats will be different and never exactly known but he can get a rough idea from back testing.
Something is not right here.
Worst case scenario is that market is unpredictable---like a coin toss, which would give you the probability of winning and losing at around 50%.
If you compare your result to the coin toss result, you will know what you doing is actually worst than the coin toss.
You should stop everything and check your vig.
PA
Worst case scenario is that market is unpredictable---like a coin toss, which would give you the probability of winning and losing at around 50%.
If you compare your result to the coin toss result, you will know what you doing is actually worst than the coin toss.
You should stop everything and check your vig.
PA
That is SO WRONG!!
You ignore fixed overheads. This year alone, I've paid 19.4K in commission. Even with a coin toss, that still has to be paid.
And unless you have the inside edge of a market maker, slippage is something you must pay, especially when trading options like I do. That is a significant cost I believe well higher than commissions.
Let's not even discuss leverage handicap.
Relax, you don't have to shout that I am wrong. Maybe I am, maybe I am not.
So, out of your current loss, would you be able to tell what portion is related to commission, slippage, and trading decision? Are you going to minmize your commission and slipppage, or are you just accepting it as a rule and must obey? Could you make your own rules?
PA
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