2012: The Battle for Survival
- Thread starter neke
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rules? i cant think of any of my rules that would talk me into shorting ahead of a fed meeting in a bull market. at best its a gamble that he would disappoint the market. bernanke has never intentionally disappointed the market.
There are 3 things you should consider:
1) I know you do some trades pre and post market. Let us assume that majority of your trading is during RTH. So, majority of your trades do not get affected by the "immediate market impact" of all the reports that come out at 830. So, these reports do not affect you since you do not have any live risk during these events.
2) For a swing trader, it can be justified to keep open the positions even when there is an impending market event, because closing the position might mean the trader loses his position. However, for a mostly intra-day trader, the average trade profit per trade is so small compared to the impact of potential market moving news that it makes no sense to keep the risk on before a big market event.
3) All market events are not created equal. If you don't want to get flat before Dragchi speeches and Retail Sales etc., it is still tolerable since the market impact is generally smaller on average. However, Fed meetings especially when speculation about policy action is in the air - warrants eliminating/reducing the risk exposure.
Just pointing out where I think you erred on risk management. Other than that, best of luck. Cheers.
Dear Neke,
This is a great story. I want to answer your comment on news.
You cannot be serious that you ignore news. This Thursday was QE3 day-you knew that ahead of time, and so did everyone else. Have you not traded on an FOMC day before? It is extremely difficult. I don't know of anyone on my floor who trades after noon on a FOMC day, and very few trade at all. It's not hard to see why, take a look at the volume. FOMC days are like holidays, which I hope you already know are also crappy to trade.
QE is on the same level of bailouts in relation to market impact. It effects everything. GDP and unemployment are pretty big, generally it's not wise to be in a trade on something related to GDP or unemployment. Then there are other news releases, which rarely has an impact but some times it does, so you need to be aware of it.
Neke-from this day on, I hope you learn to read the news and at least know the times of relevant news releases. News is the centre reason why I do much better than computer traders who don't know how to handle periods like QE3. Post back on websites (free) you think are good for news releases, and I'll let you know if they are good sites to use.
This is a great story. I want to answer your comment on news.
You cannot be serious that you ignore news. This Thursday was QE3 day-you knew that ahead of time, and so did everyone else. Have you not traded on an FOMC day before? It is extremely difficult. I don't know of anyone on my floor who trades after noon on a FOMC day, and very few trade at all. It's not hard to see why, take a look at the volume. FOMC days are like holidays, which I hope you already know are also crappy to trade.
QE is on the same level of bailouts in relation to market impact. It effects everything. GDP and unemployment are pretty big, generally it's not wise to be in a trade on something related to GDP or unemployment. Then there are other news releases, which rarely has an impact but some times it does, so you need to be aware of it.
Neke-from this day on, I hope you learn to read the news and at least know the times of relevant news releases. News is the centre reason why I do much better than computer traders who don't know how to handle periods like QE3. Post back on websites (free) you think are good for news releases, and I'll let you know if they are good sites to use.
Weekly Update for week 35/50 ended 9/15/2012
Ugly week, down 10.8K (7.4%).
The nasty days were Thurs and Fri. Got my put options decimated by the market rally that left me with a 6K loss on Thursday. Got disoriented by this, and let it influence my trading on Fri. While I should have looked for over-extended moves to fade on Fri, abstained from the short-side, instead lost another bunch on the long side.
Ugly week, down 10.8K (7.4%).
The nasty days were Thurs and Fri. Got my put options decimated by the market rally that left me with a 6K loss on Thursday. Got disoriented by this, and let it influence my trading on Fri. While I should have looked for over-extended moves to fade on Fri, abstained from the short-side, instead lost another bunch on the long side.
Code:
Opening Balance: 145,467
Net loss for the week 10,820
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Net Balance: 134,647
Since Inception of Thread 01/18/2012 - 9/15/2012
Opening Balance: 203,729
Net loss (28,082)(Down 13.8%)
Cash Withdrawal (41,000)
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Net Balance 134,647- Status