That's true and the "basic" answer from skepticalscience that FC shamelessly stole is a poor one. However, the argument goes that the CO2 we exhale returns the carbon that was originally taken from the air during photosynthesis by the plants in our food chain.
16 years 9 months, crazy fast global warming
- Thread starter futurecurrents
- Start date
It is so easy to jump to wrong conclusions when a connection to global warming seems so obvious such as a melting polar ice cap, or the seemingly obvious connection between CO2 rising, fossil fuel use, knowing that increasing CO2 can slow the rate of heat dissipation from the Earth's surface, and an observed increase in temperature. But these too simple explanations leave one bewildered to then learn that there have been times when CO2 increased and temperature dropped. Trying to treat a natural phenomenon as though it were isolated and independent from all other natural phenomena, when it isn't, can lead to all sorts of bad science. The common man is a real sucker for the post hoc fallacy and believing that correlation proves cause.
We have to determining whether the things we can exercise some control over , such as burning fossil fuel, can make a significant difference in the climate. There is obviously a great deal of direct thermal pollution coming from man's activities, but we don't hear much about that. It's not nearly as popular an issue as is global warming from CO2, but reducing direct thermal pollution may turn out to be more productive. There is so much we don't have any quantitative handle on. We know so little when it comes to understanding climate.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/...-excuse-for-the-pause-lousy-data/#more-111440
Stunning admission â and a new excuse for âthe pauseâ â âlousy dataâ
Posted on June 14, 2014 by Anthony Watts
guardian_lousy_data
âThe Models didnât have the skill we thought they hadâ¦â
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
The Guardian, a prominent green UK daily newspaper, reports that scientists have given up on surface temperature as a measure of global warming:
Stephen Briggs from the European Space Agencyâs Directorate of Earth Observation says that sea surface temperature data is the worst indicator of global climate that can be used, describing it as âlousyâ.
âIt is like looking at the last hair on the tail of a dog and trying to decide what breed it is,â he said on Friday at the Royal Society in London.
âThe models donât have the skill we thought they had. Thatâs the problem,â admits Peter Jan van Leeuwen, director of the National Centre of Earth Observation at the University of Reading.
Obviously if the surface temperature was still rising, as it was in the 90s, instead of inconveniently contradicting model predictions, then it would still be considered a valid climate metric.
Thankfully however, climate scientists have not yet run out of metrics which show an upward trend. The new measure of global warming is to be sea level rise â presumably because it is still moving in the right direction, and because it ties in nicely with the âdeep ocean heatingâ narrative.
The European Union is supportive of the effort to find climate metrics which point in the right direction â The Esa Climate Change Initiative (CCI) is a â¬75m programme, active since 2009, to produce a âtrustworthyâ set of ECV (Essential Climate Variable) data that can be accessed by all.
==============================================================
The inconvenient fact that sea level was around 6 metres higher during the Eemian Interglacial, and around 2 metres higher during the Holocene Optimum, 5500 years ago, was not mentioned in the Guardian article.
http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/ericg/kap_paper.pdf
The guardian story is here: http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/jun/13/pause-global-warming-data-sea-level-rises
Stunning admission â and a new excuse for âthe pauseâ â âlousy dataâ
Posted on June 14, 2014 by Anthony Watts
guardian_lousy_data
âThe Models didnât have the skill we thought they hadâ¦â
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
The Guardian, a prominent green UK daily newspaper, reports that scientists have given up on surface temperature as a measure of global warming:
Stephen Briggs from the European Space Agencyâs Directorate of Earth Observation says that sea surface temperature data is the worst indicator of global climate that can be used, describing it as âlousyâ.
âIt is like looking at the last hair on the tail of a dog and trying to decide what breed it is,â he said on Friday at the Royal Society in London.
âThe models donât have the skill we thought they had. Thatâs the problem,â admits Peter Jan van Leeuwen, director of the National Centre of Earth Observation at the University of Reading.
Obviously if the surface temperature was still rising, as it was in the 90s, instead of inconveniently contradicting model predictions, then it would still be considered a valid climate metric.
Thankfully however, climate scientists have not yet run out of metrics which show an upward trend. The new measure of global warming is to be sea level rise â presumably because it is still moving in the right direction, and because it ties in nicely with the âdeep ocean heatingâ narrative.
The European Union is supportive of the effort to find climate metrics which point in the right direction â The Esa Climate Change Initiative (CCI) is a â¬75m programme, active since 2009, to produce a âtrustworthyâ set of ECV (Essential Climate Variable) data that can be accessed by all.
==============================================================
The inconvenient fact that sea level was around 6 metres higher during the Eemian Interglacial, and around 2 metres higher during the Holocene Optimum, 5500 years ago, was not mentioned in the Guardian article.
http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/ericg/kap_paper.pdf
The guardian story is here: http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/jun/13/pause-global-warming-data-sea-level-rises
http://wattsupwiththat.com/
New study suggests a temperature drop of up to 1°C by 2020 due to low solar activity
Posted on June 13, 2014 by Anthony Watts
sc24 and historyFrom the HockeySchtick: A paper published today in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics finds long solar cycles predict lower temperatures during the following solar cycle. A lag of 11 years [the average solar cycle length] is found to provide maximum correlation between solar cycle length and temperature. On the basis of the long sunspot cycle of the last solar cycle 23, the authors predict an average temperature decrease of 1C over the current solar cycle 24 from 2009-2020 for certain locations.
Highlights
⺠A longer solar cycle predicts lower temperatures during the next cycle.
⺠A 1 °C or more temperature drop is predicted 2009â2020 for certain locations.
⺠Solar activity may have contributed 40% or more to the last century temperature increase.
⺠A lag of 11 years gives maximum correlation between solar cycle length and temperature.
Continue reading â
New study suggests a temperature drop of up to 1°C by 2020 due to low solar activity
Posted on June 13, 2014 by Anthony Watts
sc24 and historyFrom the HockeySchtick: A paper published today in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics finds long solar cycles predict lower temperatures during the following solar cycle. A lag of 11 years [the average solar cycle length] is found to provide maximum correlation between solar cycle length and temperature. On the basis of the long sunspot cycle of the last solar cycle 23, the authors predict an average temperature decrease of 1C over the current solar cycle 24 from 2009-2020 for certain locations.
Highlights
⺠A longer solar cycle predicts lower temperatures during the next cycle.
⺠A 1 °C or more temperature drop is predicted 2009â2020 for certain locations.
⺠Solar activity may have contributed 40% or more to the last century temperature increase.
⺠A lag of 11 years gives maximum correlation between solar cycle length and temperature.
Continue reading â
Friday Funny: New supercomputer model becomes self-aware, says it needs more power
Posted on June 13, 2014 by Anthony Watts
Worldâs Supercomputers Release Study Confirming They Are Not Powerful Enough
Processing starts at left and finishes at the far right - click image to enalrge to see the detail
The GAEA supercomputer at NOAA. Processing starts at left and finishes at the far right â click image to enlarge to see the detail
The supercomputers say the upgrades are needed now.
LIVERMORE, CAâPresenting a wide-ranging and extremely detailed case for significant upgrades to their speed and memory, the worldâs fastest supercomputers released a new study at precisely 12:00 a.m. Greenwich Mean Time Thursday that concludes they are not powerful enough.
The report, compiled by the 500 most sophisticated machines currently operating in the fields of scientific research, defense technology, and cybersecurity, has determined that the planetâs supercomputers require vastly increased processing capabilities, expanded data storage capacities, and direct fiber-optic connectivity with all other supercomputers in the world.
Continue reading â
Posted in Humor, Satire | 81 Com
Posted on June 13, 2014 by Anthony Watts
Worldâs Supercomputers Release Study Confirming They Are Not Powerful Enough
Processing starts at left and finishes at the far right - click image to enalrge to see the detail
The GAEA supercomputer at NOAA. Processing starts at left and finishes at the far right â click image to enlarge to see the detail
The supercomputers say the upgrades are needed now.
LIVERMORE, CAâPresenting a wide-ranging and extremely detailed case for significant upgrades to their speed and memory, the worldâs fastest supercomputers released a new study at precisely 12:00 a.m. Greenwich Mean Time Thursday that concludes they are not powerful enough.
The report, compiled by the 500 most sophisticated machines currently operating in the fields of scientific research, defense technology, and cybersecurity, has determined that the planetâs supercomputers require vastly increased processing capabilities, expanded data storage capacities, and direct fiber-optic connectivity with all other supercomputers in the world.
Continue reading â
Posted in Humor, Satire | 81 Com
http://wattsupwiththat.com/
Climate Change: itâs the motions of the oceans
Posted on June 12, 2014 by Anthony Watts
From the University of London
Scientists discover link between climate change and ocean currents over 6 million years
This image depicts the research vessel JOIDES Resolution arriving Lisbon after the IODP Expedition 339.
Scientists have discovered a relationship between climate change and ocean currents over the past six million years after analysing an area of the Atlantic near the Strait of Gibraltar, according to research published today (Friday, 13 June) in the journal Science.
An expedition of scientists, jointly led by Dr Javier Hernandez-Molina, from the Department of Earth Sciences at Royal Holloway, University of London, examined core samples from the seabed off the coast of Spain and Portugal which provided proof of shifts of climate change over millions of years. Continue reading â
Climate Change: itâs the motions of the oceans
Posted on June 12, 2014 by Anthony Watts
From the University of London
Scientists discover link between climate change and ocean currents over 6 million years
This image depicts the research vessel JOIDES Resolution arriving Lisbon after the IODP Expedition 339.
Scientists have discovered a relationship between climate change and ocean currents over the past six million years after analysing an area of the Atlantic near the Strait of Gibraltar, according to research published today (Friday, 13 June) in the journal Science.
An expedition of scientists, jointly led by Dr Javier Hernandez-Molina, from the Department of Earth Sciences at Royal Holloway, University of London, examined core samples from the seabed off the coast of Spain and Portugal which provided proof of shifts of climate change over millions of years. Continue reading â
That's amusing. This is the first year in recent memory where they had to tow icebergs in Lake Ontario out of the commercial shipping lanes in June. Especially amusing that this entire operation was visible from Toronto.
You mean YOU know so little about the climate. And the little you do know you refuse to logically put together. For some reason. But at least you did not refer to Salby this time.
Thermal pollution is tiny compared to the forcing effect of our CO2 pollution. More obfuscation and red herrings from you.
It's very simple at the basic level of what's happening.
So piezoe. Do you still think this recent rise in CO2 is due to anything other than man?
I see you seem to avoid the hard questions that make your "argument" look silly.
I see you seem to avoid the hard questions that make your "argument" look silly.