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lol. Right, i meant to say like playing an online session with multiple tables at the same time.

Yea, it's like trading penny stocks. The smaller the volume (number of participants) the higher the variance. If you played poker at a table with 1,000,000 players on it, your odds would reflect closer to the true odds

Trading it? what are you even asking

I'm in the camp that there is nothing new under the sun when it comes to trading approach. Every idea you and I have come up with has been thought about by countless of traders/investors before. If your trading strategy can be easily reversed engineered in just a small sample size, then I'm...

Let me just say that I only believe in real trading stats. I can't take anybody seriously until i see a sample of trades with the most common trading metrics along side with it. It's hard to gauge what you do or even appreciate what you'resharing cause when I see statements like this, it's like...

Tried a few things over the years that didnt work: breakout scalp worked until it didnt 15k to 100k before blowing https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/joining-the-cme-gang.334231/page-62#post-5215594 then did the mean reversion. Got out of hand on waiting for reversal so that didn't work...

So you took one call and extrapolate it to where you make the conclusion it's possible to do this with significant degree of accuracy on a regular basis? Can we do an experiment? Can you do 60% accuracy of sample directional calls (minimum 10 calls) with a fixed time period (start and end...

Just use the expectancy value formula. if it's positive, it'a good strategy. My rule of thumb is minimum 100 trades for review. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/flip-of-a-coin-but.372081/page-4#post-5745268 But this formula like everything else is always in hindsight. You can have 1000...

Price retracements.

Just based on this thread, I'm rethinking my approach to my algo trading. Forget the analysis, the bias, the entries. All I care about is the impulses along the way.

I decided to edit the way i trade slightly based the premise that price movement is mostly a random event. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/flip-of-a-coin-but.372081/ I want to focus more on the tendency of price to retrace. Why do I think retracement trading works better than trying...

Divergence MACD cross/zero line test oscillator extremes? candlestick pattern (triples, doubles, single (hammer, star)) That's just pulling it randomly out of my ass...

Let's say you have a 60% chance of determining a trend What's your entry success rate? (relative to your stop) maybe 60% chance? I'm giving you a very modest hit rate. What's your overall probability like? 40% combined on a single position. if you have some skewed R:R, it'll be even worse...

and smokin a little bit of crack woudln't hurt

Plug in some EV formula for a random stake to make money over time avg winx%win - avg lossx%loss .35 x 2 - .65 x 1 = .05 postive return over time

taht was for 90% this is 85%

About 95% likely. 2% risk takes about 36 rounds to double 36 win streak has a chance of 95% probability with 85% win rate system

Maybe the whole point is to manage your bankroll so that your whole stake is not at risk in one sitting. If you have 90% chance of making money and 10% of blowing up, maybe just put up enough to sustain a predetermined loss. And trade the strategy long enough that you can withdraw your...

I mean where else you going to go? the 3rd world degen site (forexfactory)? the haunted house (futures.io)? the noobz center (babypips)? the has been? (trade2win)?

I think there's more variance in poker then it is in trading though. Your hand odds are not 50/50. Even a pair is like what 40% odds? It's mostly a game of telling a story, maybe 10% of it is actual game.