How can you tell when the trend is over?

[hilmy83]

What have you tried so far that has or has not worked?

Tried a few things over the years that didnt work:

breakout scalp worked until it didnt 15k to 100k before blowing
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/joining-the-cme-gang.334231/page-62#post-5215594

then did the mean reversion. Got out of hand on waiting for reversal so that didn't work either
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/broke-ass-capital.358304/page-4

I went all in in both approaches. One thing i never realy tried is applying smaller scale size and b/e stops to manage risk and using algo to take myself out of the equation. That's where I'm at now:

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/index-futures-automation.368144/page-17#post-5745889

 

[murray t turtle]

so none of you here are profitable?

%%
SOME are, even though i had an uprofitable JAN\
JAN2022. BUT that tends to happen to most any SPY ..........trend follower, when in hindsight\ the main trend /changes.
But back to your profit question\
yes i also profit on cash metals business. I asked the female cashier, past 52 weeks , buy any gold?? No \she says but buys plenty of #1 copper /steel/ iron/#2 copper...... She may have bought gold miners + copper miners, she did not say,!!
barchart has a 56 % buy on XLE meaning what?? NOT a stock tip/200dma =up
WELL it means + notes for investors /200day moving averages / its a 100% buy\
for traders\ they note 50dma = sell. SO may want to find something else, or buy smaller, or sell some.
Plenty investors profit with profit off a 200dma/ or with real estate, dont need a 200dma;
get a good female REALTOR or male REALTOR.[Only 2, not 200 choicesLOL]

 

[hilmy83]

I am fed up with the nonsense Baron style. I will not do anything for anybody as by definition any good trade will always be qualified as luck. This trolling is already going on several years, so no matter what I would proof, it will always be qualified as pure luck. Any honest or intellectual conversation on ET is impossible.
I shared alot in past but got shit in return.
What you propose is not what I do. You even don't understand how I know in advance that it is a retracement and not a trend change. But you will never know it.

I know now already that this year I will make over 1,000% return. It is not the first time and it will not be the last time.

When Baron bought BTC around the all time high I posted this:


View attachment 303433
We were then at $60,161. The trend was over. Short on weekly at $66,075.

View attachment 303432

I know it was just luck. So, why would I do any test to get the same comment:"It was luck agauin."

Let me just say that I only believe in real trading stats. I can't take anybody seriously until i see a sample of trades with the most common trading metrics along side with it.

It's hard to gauge what you do or even appreciate what you'resharing cause when I see statements like this, it's like hard to not just brush it off.

If you had a journal where you log in your trades or explain your approach to making 1000%, then i'd be the first to tip my hat off and call you "daddy".

But right now, all I see is "yea i can make money...cause i do it different...end of story"..

 

[Peter8519]

Price action is like TA, which is like pretty young women jumping and spreading their legs over bars in a gymnastics competition.
It all looks well and good but as a spectator won't get you anywhere.

TA works perfectly with past data. It gets sketchy when putting order on the right edge of the chart.

 

[murray t turtle]

Whether its a bull or a bear run
What are the signs that its about to reverse?
What should i look for?
Thats one of my biggest problems is i dont know when run is over and get stuck in trades

I dont know hot to tell a trend reversal from a small pullback

%%
200dma works well with a good trend/ because it trends a lot more than it ends.If it takes you years to learn that, better late than never. Wisdom = profitable to direct............................................
I pick up penny like dr Jack hayford said , who recently passed. But thats on main street.
I never aim @ pennies on Wall Street\ no disrespect to our market maker\specialist friends
But i was never afraid to have a cash metals business or invest in a public library card or private library; i seldom trade investing books or trading books. I invest in those.
[IF you put market makers in a profitable business\
then add up all the millionaires who made it by investing, may want to study investing]
Or you may want to give market makers pennies all you life, fine with me,!!!

 

[themickey]

If you had a journal where you log in your trades or explain your approach to making 1000%, then i'd be the first to tip my hat off and call you "daddy".

When a proficient trader has worked years to create a system, the last thing they will want to do is display a bunch of accurate calls online to the 'rabble'.
Too easy to reverse engineer.

 

[speedo]

When a proficient trader has worked years to create a system, the last thing they will want to do is display a bunch of accurate calls online to the 'rabble'.
Too easy to reverse engineer.

Mickey, there is no need to "reverse engineer" anything, and no need for secretive esoteric trading methodologies. Here is a chart with a series of bull and bear trend flags indicated by the arrows....basic shit. I also noted a zone retracement setup. As a setup in forming, the only thing I ask myself is "Is this a valid signal according to my trade plan?'....if yes, I take it and follow my trade management rules. Will the trade work?, who the fuck knows but no need to know if your signals have a proven edge.....just take them and manage them according to plan. Whether any given trade is a winner or a loser is irrelevant.

 

[hilmy83]

When a proficient trader has worked years to create a system, the last thing they will want to do is display a bunch of accurate calls online to the 'rabble'.
Too easy to reverse engineer.

I'm in the camp that there is nothing new under the sun when it comes to trading approach. Every idea you and I have come up with has been thought about by countless of traders/investors before. If your trading strategy can be easily reversed engineered in just a small sample size, then I'm sorry to tell you that you're trading the same system like everybody else.

But if you don't want to share, then that's fine too. But what's the point of making claims when you refuse to engage when you're confronted about it?

Trading is all about results and metrics. That's the only language i understand when it comes to trading discussion. Good day sir!

 

[themickey]

Mickey, there is no need to "reverse engineer" anything, and no need for secretive esoteric trading methodologies. Here is a chart with a series of bull and bear trend flags indicated by the arrows....basic shit. I also noted a zone retracement setup. As a setup in forming, the only thing I ask myself is "Is this a valid signal according to my trade plan?'....if yes, I take it and follow my trade management rules. Will the trade work?, who the fuck knows but no need to know if your signals have a proven edge.....just take them and manage them according to plan. Whether any given trade is a winner or a loser is irrelevant.

There are different degrees of trading, methods, time frames, objectives, a hundred different ways to skin the same cat.

Whether any given trade is a winner or a loser is irrelevant.

True depending on how the trader operates, for some an accurate trade with high win rate is important, for others who trade very frequently win rate not so important as they just want high turnover and a small edge will suffice.
But to have a 'unique' type system become common knowledge would probably destroy it.
Virtusa talking about 1000% returns means this is a bit unique.
I'll add this, not everyone can trade, there is skill involved, handing a 100% plan to an individual is no guarantee they can trade it.

 

[themickey]

Virtusa talking about 1000% returns means this is a bit unique.

And I'm not dumb enough to believe virtusa can always pull in 1000%.
The climate has to be right to pull this off.