Flip of a coin..but

[spy]

For fucks sake, how old are you dude? First of all there was nothing agreeable between your two statements, @farmerjohn1324 correctly pointed out that the random component in winning poker matches is minimal over many games. You claimed poker to be a great analogy for a randomly generated time series. Shrugs...

Lol

 

[Tradess0610]

However, if someone put a gun to my head and said "Your black ass better make $100 today in the ES market, or I am blowing your head off, and you have 1 hour, get started NOW", I will do the following to save my life.


Enter a trade
Use a big stop
Small Profit Target
Scale In to avoid a loss, and make $100.

Live another day.

Love your thread.

The problem with your (theoretical) strategy that i see is, that you do not care about losses. If you do not make $100 you die and therefore the losses do not matter.

In reality, we care about the losses in our accounts.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

The problem with your (theoretical) strategy that i see is, that you do not care about losses. If you do not make $100 you die and therefore the losses do not matter.

In reality, we care about the losses in our accounts.

Even if it's not a literal "death".... This strategy would result in the death of one's account.

At increased day trading leverage ($500/ES), all it takes is 10 points in the wrong direction before you are completely wiped out. 100% loss.

 

[hilmy83]

Even if it's not a literal "death".... This strategy would result in the death of one's account.

At increased day trading leverage ($500/ES), all it takes is 10 points in the wrong direction before you are completely wiped out. 100% loss.

Maybe the whole point is to manage your bankroll so that your whole stake is not at risk in one sitting.

If you have 90% chance of making money and 10% of blowing up, maybe just put up enough to sustain a predetermined loss. And trade the strategy long enough that you can withdraw your original stake.

If tha'ts too much, move down to micros.

 

[SunTrader]

Not very likely.

 

[hilmy83]

Not very likely.

About 95% likely.

2% risk takes about 36 rounds to double

36 win streak has a chance of 95% probability with 85% win rate system

 

[hilmy83]

About 95% likely.

2% risk takes about 36 rounds to double

36 win streak has a chance of 95% probability with 85% win rate system



View attachment 303351

taht was for 90%

this is 85%

 

[hilmy83]

taht was for 90%

this is 85%

View attachment 303353

Plug in some EV formula for a random stake to make money over time

avg winx%win - avg lossx%loss

.35 x 2 - .65 x 1 = .05 postive return over time

 

[SimpleMeLike]

The problem with your (theoretical) strategy that i see is, that you do not care about losses. If you do not make $100 you die and therefore the losses do not matter.

In reality, we care about the losses in our accounts.

Good Evening Tradess0610,

Losses means absolutely nothing at ALL. All that matters for a day trader is 1 thing ONLY:

1. Can you recover your account from intraday drawdown as a manual discretionary/guessing/gambling trader and end the day/week/month profitable consistently for the next X to XX years?

Recovering from drawdown to keep the account positive and growing is all that matters. Does not matter if losses per trade is $10,000 and wins is $1 per trade, for example. Just recovery drawdown

 

[easymon1]

Recovering from drawdown to keep the account positive and growing is all that matters. Does not matter if losses per trade is $10,000 and wins is $1 per trade, for example. Just recovery drawdown

It is entertaining that you state the above as if it is a matter of will alone that makes it happen.