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1) Short AAPL The most overowned stock in the universe and ripe for a heavy selloff this year. 2) Long Yen/Short Euro The yen is artificially low due to the yen carry trade. With a boatload of hedge funds due to go out of business in the next couple years, the carry trade will unwind in a...

That October 97 crash and retest in 1998 was a double bottom. I don't know where you see a triple bottom there. If you consider a market going down 3 times over a course of a year and then shooting higher, and call that a triple bottom, I can't argue with you. But thats not the real definition...

I like your strategy. I would include AAPL as another short candidate. It has a lot of room to fall and overowned by institutions.

Agree. The market will go where it wants to go in the long term, but intraday or over slow trading periods like year end or during holidays, it is easily manipulated. The futures are the preferred tool of course for market manipulation, especially in the final hour of the trading day.

Goldman is so obvious in their intentions. When ever they want to dump the market so they can get in, they come out with these negative calls on the economy/market. Whenever they want to dump their holdings, they come out with positive calls. Classic Goldman.

Anecdotally, you can look back at the Asian crisis in 1997-1998 which was a sort of decoupling, because the US markets were relatively unaffected and bullish and the US went on to the biggest bubble in the history of the universe.

Actually, considering that this rumor is so widespread, I think 30 handles at the most. And I don't think the market will hold on to more than half that gain over the day. So we may only get a 1% daily gain after a surprise rate cut IMO. That would be brutal for market psyche.

From these levels, 40 handles at the moment the rate cut is announced but it won't close the day up more than 25 handles after the big run we had today.

Is it a mechanical strategy or a discretionary strategy? If its mechanical, then I think you have re-examine your parameters. If its discretionary, I would re-examine your psyche.

If a pattern was established over several months, then you want to trade it on a monthly time frame. If the pattern was established over several days, then you would want to trade it on a daily time frame. This pattern has been established over several months. In my view, its a monthly time...

Rumor is being floated around by underwater longs looking for idiots to buy the rumor so they can dump their holdings.

Different time frames. I was making an intraday call right there. I called a bottom when the S&P was trading around 1390, and it closed at 1409. This triple bottom is dead call is over monthly time frames. I think we're head much lower from here over the course of the year.

There are different time frames for these patterns. Obviously, in the short term, maybe a couple days, these long established support lines can support the market but the triple bottom pattern that was just made happened over 11 months. (from February 07) It is a pattern that will fail in my...

You have more data points, but that doesn't make the support more reliable, it makes it seem more reliable. In TA, when everyone sees a bullish pattern, it usually doesn't work out because everyone has already gotten long and are looking to exit.

You don't think Goldman was out there buying today before the big closing rally after it made its recession call? Goldman is one of the easiest fades. They say one thing and their traders are doing the opposite. Its all about green for Goldman, they have no ethics. Goldman was short subprime...

He's serious. You see, if the support or resistance doesn't hold the 3rd time, its not a triple top or bottom, but a double top or bottom which failed to hold support the 3rd time. If there is no 3rd bottom, then its not a triple bottom.

EXACTLY. That is why this move today is not going to last. It is almost "too easy" for someone to just buy that support at 1380 and just wait for the market to rocket higher. Unlike the last 2 times that we hit 1380 and bounced, we've already gone through several Fed cuts and bailout attempts...

October highs? We might not get back there for another 2 or 3 years! I'm serious. This is a totally broken market, lots of financial problems in the US that will not be cleared out in 6 months. It will take a few years for things to get back to normal.

Everyone is looking at the same thing you are. Everyone knows that we bounced off of long term support, and feel like its a short term bottom. What is very telling here is that this time, the US market is not affecting Asia like in August. This actually is a negative for the market...

Markets are manipulated by the big boys who run the buy programs. That was pure buy program in the last 90 minutes. And everyone else just went on for the ride. This was your one day wonder. The market won't be going much higher from these levels barring the most anticipated surprise...