Triple bottoms are rare: its game over

[mgabriel01]

Quote from detective:

You have more data points, but that doesn't make the support more reliable, it makes it seem more reliable.

In TA, when everyone sees a bullish pattern, it usually doesn't work out because everyone has already gotten long and are looking to exit.

'


.......very interesting --- so you trade 'against' (contrary to..) the patterns

and in this respect you are trading against other traders... not the mythical 'market'


ok - so clearly Im new at this

 

[HolyGrail]

Quote from mgabriel01:

Do you want to know why you see so few triple tops or bottoms? It's because a triple top is no longer a triple top when the double top is exceeded and vice versa.


so, no such thing as a triple top? (serious question)

I didn't say there was no such thing, I said they are few and far between. If you play triple tops and bottoms you will do well if you are buying all tops and selling all bottoms.

 

[Landis82]

Quote from interdigital:

So first you start this thread where you say look out below, and then you start the "We've bottomed at 1380. No looking back" thread, and now you say we're going through the lows real soon??

He seems thoroughly and unequivocally confused.

 

[HolyGrail]

Quote from detective:

You have more data points, but that doesn't make the support more reliable, it makes it seem more reliable.

Exactly.

 

[mgabriel01]

Quote from HolyGrail:

I didn't say there was no such thing, I said they are few and far between. If you play triple tops and bottoms you will do well if you are buying all tops and selling all bottoms.

because the triple top says ---- 'buying interest is exhausted so go short'

?

 

[detective]

Quote from mgabriel01:

'


.......very interesting --- so you trade 'against' (contrary to..) the patterns

and in this respect you are trading against other traders... not the mythical 'market'


ok - so clearly Im new at this

There are different time frames for these patterns. Obviously, in the short term, maybe a couple days, these long established support lines can support the market but the triple bottom pattern that was just made happened over 11 months. (from February 07) It is a pattern that will fail in my opinion over monthly time frames.

 

[detective]

Quote from Landis82:

He seems thoroughly and unequivocally confused.

Different time frames. I was making an intraday call right there. I called a bottom when the S&P was trading around 1390, and it closed at 1409.

This triple bottom is dead call is over monthly time frames. I think we're head much lower from here over the course of the year.

 

[mgabriel01]

Quote from detective:

There are different time frames for these patterns. Obviously, in the short term, maybe a couple days, these long established support lines can support the market but the triple bottom pattern that was just made happened over 11 months. (from February 07) It is a pattern that will fail in my opinion over monthly time frames.

if the patterns are fractal - wouldn't a pattern manifest itself on the longer time horizons as well as the shorter ones?


if they don't -- how would you know what time frame was appropriate for the pattern?

 

[mgabriel01]

or should I say

'if the price action displays fractal tendancies'

 

[detective]

If a pattern was established over several months, then you want to trade it on a monthly time frame.
If the pattern was established over several days, then you would want to trade it on a daily time frame.
This pattern has been established over several months. In my view, its a monthly time frame.