That makes a great deal of sense
I see what you are saying now
very helpful
thanks
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Triple bottoms are rare: its game over
- Thread starter detective
- Start date
That makes a great deal of sense
I see what you are saying now
very helpful
thanks
If you want long time frame... SPX peaked at 1553 in March 2000, and peaked again at 1576 last October. Coincidence, or a huge double top foreshadowing a massive decline of the indexes to mid-90s levels? (What effect would this have now that everyone and their brother relies on a 401(k) with 90% in stocks for their only real savings + retirement income?)
Of course I don't know, but 2008 will be interesting to say the least. For now I see a bear market in our future but the next 3-4 weeks will provide confirmation. How many more times can SPX hit the ~1380 level before it crashes through?
Of course I don't know, but 2008 will be interesting to say the least. For now I see a bear market in our future but the next 3-4 weeks will provide confirmation. How many more times can SPX hit the ~1380 level before it crashes through?
I don't necessarily buy either of those, but interesting thoughts nonetheless.
"Everyone" saw the huge reversal in August, and it resulted with a rally to new highs. "Everyone" sees the long-term double top in the S&P 500 around 1550-1575, and prices keep getting rejected there. "Everyone" saw the outside bars and weird behavior of the major stock indices in October, and sure enough there was reversal to the downside. Sometimes the obvious doesn't work; sometimes it does.
In this case, you have long-term trendline support and the fact that OSMs (especially places like India) AND carry trade pairs are holding up better than the U.S. I've never seen empirical or convincing anecdotal evidence suggesting a divergence between US and OSMs is bearish. What we've seen so far this year suggests the opposite.
"Everyone" saw the huge reversal in August, and it resulted with a rally to new highs. "Everyone" sees the long-term double top in the S&P 500 around 1550-1575, and prices keep getting rejected there. "Everyone" saw the outside bars and weird behavior of the major stock indices in October, and sure enough there was reversal to the downside. Sometimes the obvious doesn't work; sometimes it does.
In this case, you have long-term trendline support and the fact that OSMs (especially places like India) AND carry trade pairs are holding up better than the U.S. I've never seen empirical or convincing anecdotal evidence suggesting a divergence between US and OSMs is bearish. What we've seen so far this year suggests the opposite.
Quote from detective:
Everyone is looking at the same thing you are. Everyone knows that we bounced off of long term support, and feel like its a short term bottom.
What is very telling here is that this time, the US market is not affecting Asia like in August. This actually is a negative for the market. When you see decoupling of a market to the downside, it is usually a very weak market that has much further downside, i.e., the US market.
Quote from MKTrader:
In this case, you have long-term trendline support and the fact that OSMs (especially places like India) AND carry trade pairs are holding up better than the U.S. I've never seen empirical or convincing anecdotal evidence suggesting a divergence between US and OSMs is bearish. What we've seen so far this year suggests the opposite.
Anecdotally, you can look back at the Asian crisis in 1997-1998 which was a sort of decoupling, because the US markets were relatively unaffected and bullish and the US went on to the biggest bubble in the history of the universe.
Detective: You're fos. I can find many triple bottoms over the years that were HUGE support. For starters look at the SPX bottom of Jul/2002-Oct/2002-Mch/2003. In fact it looks a lot like the present. Hope you're still not waiting for THOSE lows to get taken out!
Or look at the Oct/97 crash with the subsequent retests in 1998. Or the complex trip bottom (with slightly lower lows) made in 2004. In each case those are lows that either were NEVER traded through or years later (97/98 were broken in 2002).
Or look at the Oct/97 crash with the subsequent retests in 1998. Or the complex trip bottom (with slightly lower lows) made in 2004. In each case those are lows that either were NEVER traded through or years later (97/98 were broken in 2002).
So if we go lower, but later in the year, then right now is the third bottom, and later on we will be wondering if it is a quadruple bottom or not.Quote from detective:
This triple bottom is dead call is over monthly time frames. I think we're head much lower from here over the course of the year.
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:
Detective: You're fos. I can find many triple bottoms over the years that were HUGE support. For starters look at the SPX bottom of Jul/2002-Oct/2002-Mch/2003. In fact it looks a lot like the present. Hope you're still not waiting for THOSE lows to get taken out!
Or look at the Oct/97 crash with the subsequent retests in 1998. Or the complex trip bottom (with slightly lower lows) made in 2004. In each case those are lows that either were NEVER traded through or years later (97/98 were broken in 2002).
That October 97 crash and retest in 1998 was a double bottom. I don't know where you see a triple bottom there. If you consider a market going down 3 times over a course of a year and then shooting higher, and call that a triple bottom, I can't argue with you. But thats not the real definition of a triple bottom. Also, July 02, October 02, and March 03, were not at the same level. Look at the Nasdaq index, which was the most volatile index at that time and the one where people looked at for action. July 02 was much higher than October 02. And March 03 was much higher than October 02. That was NOT a triple bottom by any means.
Quote from detective:
That October 97 crash and retest in 1998 was a double bottom. I don't know where you see a triple bottom there. If you consider a market going down 3 times over a course of a year and then shooting higher, and call that a triple bottom, I can't argue with you. But thats not the real definition of a triple bottom. Also, July 02, October 02, and March 03, were not at the same level. Look at the Nasdaq index, which was the most volatile index at that time and the one where people looked at for action. July 02 was much higher than October 02. And March 03 was much higher than October 02. That was NOT a triple bottom by any means.
Whats the textbook definition of a triple bottom ? (serious question)
Quote from detective:
That October 97 crash and retest in 1998 was a double bottom. I don't know where you see a triple bottom there. If you consider a market going down 3 times over a course of a year and then shooting higher, and call that a triple bottom, I can't argue with you. But's that not the real definition of a triple bottom. Also, July 02, October 02, and March 03, were not at the same level. Look at the Nasdaq index, which was the most volatile index at that time and the one where people looked at for action. July 02 was much higher than October 02. And March 03 was much higher than October 02. That was NOT a triple bottom by any means.
I didn't say NDX I said SPX. How is the triple bottom on the 02/03 lows any less exact than our present formation? Those lows were 775, 768, 788. Anyone in their right mind would look at an SPX chart from 02/03 and say "wow triple bottom."
And I beg to differ on 97/98. The SPX crash low in Oct97 was 912. The Sept/98 low was 939 and then after a failed 100pt rally the Oct low was 923. You may also want to see a monthly of Bond futures. You'll notice May, Jun, Jul of 1984 as a triple bottom. Those lows have now held for a quarter century.
Hell I could dig up Corn charts and find lows under 2 dollars that have been tested several times.
I agree with you that THIS trip bottom will trade out. Don't however think that trip bottoms MUST fail.