market manipulation?

[Landis82]

Quote from Batman28:

Don't know - but I beleive they're essentially market makers. I guess they might use some statistical price ideas etc for their inventory to study supply and demand. but I doubt it if they ever move markets.

On the NYMEX where 90% of the trading is in spreads, the locals look at historical relationships that are displayed visually via charts and more often than not will also apply technical analysis to those charts.

Even the quickest of "scalpers" on the CBOT or CME will take a look at where various moving averages are coming thru, support/resistance levels, not too mention a fibonacci calculation or two.

In other words:

TECHNICALS

 

[MKTrader]

I may join you selling near October highs...I'm talking about the 1 to 3-day rallies and clear resistance points that have been shorted so far. Those are getting a little too obvious and "easy" in my book.

If something big happens (surprise Fed cut or tax cut, major soverign fund buyout, whatever) we could see a huge run on stops at 50-day MA, 200-day MA, trendline resistance, etc. Just like it happened in late August and September.

Quote from PAPA ROACH:

Hey! I am a perma-bear and that is offensive! Actually, this permabear is essentially flat now and would love to "whine and blameshift" about another chance to sell October highs

 

[dtrader98]

Quote from 88888accountant:

- haven't read 'Reminiscences' (his mkt was rigged but he still found a way...)

especially, since he was one of the ones rigging it.

he also said markets never change. so its still rigged. and livermore got very upset about certain types of thievery.

 

[mgabriel01]

Quote from Batman28:

what major technical support? no disrespect but I've had the opportunity to visit some of prop desks at a few Invesment banks and haven't met a single trader who uses it or beleives in technical analysis. I don't have much of a view on it myself.

OK - so I sit down every morning at 8am and write some notes about the upcoming trading day. (Got the idea from a poster on ET)

Here are my notes from this morning -
(so maybe this whole 'support/resistance' concept is a matter of belief?)

Franklin, Dewey and Peirce had some interesting things to say about belief

 

[detective]

Quote from MKTrader:

I may join you selling near October highs...I'm talking about the 1 to 3-day rallies and clear resistance points that have been shorted so far. Those are getting a little too obvious and "easy" in my book.

October highs? We might not get back there for another 2 or 3 years! I'm serious. This is a totally broken market, lots of financial problems in the US that will not be cleared out in 6 months. It will take a few years for things to get back to normal.

 

[detective]

You don't think Goldman was out there buying today before the big closing rally after it made its recession call? Goldman is one of the easiest fades. They say one thing and their traders are doing the opposite. Its all about green for Goldman, they have no ethics. Goldman was short subprime and selling the slime to its clients at the same time. Wow, that rhymes. haha.

 

[trickshot]

Quote from Batman28:

I know the truth is when it comes to trading you shouldn't really care and just follow the market and make money. And I can imagine only losers cry about market manipulation, unfairness blah blah etc.

But ignoring all that, just putting it into perspective - wasn't the huge selling bit earlier a bluff? if in fact truth - why would the same forces buy it back? I'm not talking bout little guys trying to chase the market. I'm talking about those forces that are able to move markets.

clearly there is a reason for it? buying back cheaper? remember this is the day Goldman announces recession for 08.

I know how some of you smart guys like to talk about irrational market, randomness bla blah. but i don't really think this was random at all. if it was random the selling might ease pace and stop at a equilibrium level today. but it was PUSHED down only to be bought back heavily.

I don't want to hear trading strategies, making money bla bla, just think about what just happend, do you really think market wasn't manipulated?

The market IS manipulated, it doesnt take much to manipulate it on an intra day basis, but its obviously impossible to manipulate it for any extended period of time.

 

[trade4ever2day]

Quote from Batman28:

clearly there is a reason for it?

If you try to pinpoint the reason as to why things happen you will alway lose. Nobody knows and nobody ever will.

This technical bounce was one of the most predictable ones I have ever seen. If you did not make money today you will never make any unless you stop thinking about reasons and causes and start studying the charts.

Good luck

Alex

 

[trade4ever2day]

Quote from detective:

You don't think Goldman was out there buying today before the big closing rally after it made its recession call? Goldman is one of the easiest fades. They say one thing and their traders are doing the opposite. Its all about green for Goldman, they have no ethics. Goldman was short subprime and selling the slime to its clients at the same time. Wow, that rhymes. haha.

Excellent post, very true.

Alex

 

[trade4ever2day]

Quote from Batman28:

PARACLESE a question.

I met a Phd trader once who i tried to impress by saying market is a zero sum game and he asked what pushes up the index? say e.g. SPX. why does it goes up?

anyways to the point, those who assume market is zero-sum arn't good game theorists.

Trading is a zero sum game. Stock investing is NOT a zero-sum game because of dividents, mergers, value creation, etc.

Futures trading is zero sum by definition and structure. Yet, futures prices move in trends often. Zero-sum has nothing to do with pricing of assets. It only has to do with loses and winnings and they must be equal.

Alex