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Survivorship bias is huge problem, agreed. Who knows if the data is even available at all?! If one could only have a historical database of funds that started reporting their results but then conveniently dropped out when things went sour, one could have a better idea of the degree of bias...

"A month or so before he blew up, Taleb had dinner with Niederhoffer at a restaurant in Westport, and Niederhoffer told him that he had been selling naked puts. You can imagine the two of them across the table from each other, Niederhoffer explaining that his bet was an acceptable risk, that the...

"A year after Nassim Taleb came to visit him, Victor Niederhoffer blew up. He sold a very large number of options on the S. & P. index, taking millions of dollars from other traders in exchange for promising to buy a basket of stocks from them at current prices, if the market ever fell. It was...

So that would be $50-75m and then some? Man, that sucks, it must have been tremendous stress. No wonder VN said he was majorly depressed. On a personal level, I believe his fortitude is amazing and anyone would want to have a fraction of his courage to come back in a such situation. His...

Jay It's one thing to warn people about the difficulty of trend following methods. I believe that you are right on in saying that capitalization is key and many people overlook that. It is another thing (a big leap) to 1) claim that the larger and well capitalized trend followers who...

So the bottom line is that Vic blew away ~50-75m in 1997m, came back 5 years later with 4m when he started Matador in 2002, had assets size of 45m at end of 2004', and now is at 156m in assets from South African investors, according to NYT 5/29/05 article and up ~13% for the year, or probably...

From NYT 5/29/05' "Returning to business hasn't been much easier for Victor Niederhoffer. His first hedge fund business was crippled in 1997 by leveraged and unhedged speculations in the Thai stock market, and then finished off by a wrong bet on American stocks. Mr. Niederhoffer said he...

I saw estimates of a loss of $50-100m for 1997. So it sounds like he blew up once only? I've heard people say 2 -3 times, 3 sounds wrong, but 2 sound correct, since I think I read somewhere that he did same thing in fall of 2001. Can anyone confirm? How large is Matador now?

How large was VN's fund when he blew up in 87' then 98'? can someone post the numbers please. Then how large is his fund now? Anyone?

? Show me dollar recovery returns vs blow up dollars and I will let it go. How large was VN's fund when he blew up in 87' then 98'? can someone post the numbers please. Then how large is his fund now? Anyone? [/B] Does anyone have numbers for the above, would be cool to know some facts...

As for Seykota, while I enjoy his trading 'advice', I am agnostic as to his 'tribe' dealing, and have no interest in that whatsoever. I am not Seykota's fan, and don't think it's healthy to idolize anyone, even though one cam admire and seek to learn from the best.

You're challenge is meaningless, I'm surprised you didnt get the point of my previous point. Why don't you answer my question instead, which poses a real challenge in contrast? Show me dollar recovery returns vs blow up dollars and I will let it go. How large was VN's fund when he blew up in 87'...

Your argument is very weak. A current ranking in the top 5 funds over 45m is essentially a red herring. If you want to approach the issue with intellectual honesty, (I am agnostic as to whether you want to or not, and frankly don't care), you need to do the following: Simply compare the...

And I think it was Oscar the Grouch who said, if you have a 20 year track record of +15% or more, you are da man. :eek:

Instead of focusing on the guys who've already blown up or blown up twice, you get a bunch of clowns conjecturing on when a guy with a proven long term record is going to blow up. Priceless... To the latter folks, I'd say, save yourself a couple of keystrokes willya, and come back when the...

The problem with POP's material is that without the right context to put it in, it simply does not help much. Context is everything in terms of risk control, you can't add to a trade if you are scalping 500 times a day like some do. If you can figure out POP's style, then I think there is...

Agreed. In all the threads I've read here on ET, I'm surprised that no one has really brought up the relationship that exists between trading frequency and the optimal fixed fractional bet size... As you point out, 2% a trade for someone betting 10 times a day surely can't be a good thing, lol...

very interesting thx

Would you say squaring price and time is new age stuff as well or rigorously grounded on quantitative ideas? Last time I checked it was the highly controversial Gann who originated squaring of price and time as a trading method

Are you sure he was involved in those stocks recently? If so, where are you getting this information?