John Henry--The Next Blow Up ??

I do not recall if there was a lock up period. But it was closed in the late fall. So I suspect if you got in in sept or oct you got your money back before the end of the lockup.

Regarding trends. Being short oil is not the best example.

I would look to say of the other markets including the bund. See a good trend seems to happen when everyone is right for a while or some very large players are wrong.


What we seeing lately is very good trends. If someone refuses to acknowledge their current existence. They must have an agenda.
 
? Show me dollar recovery returns vs blow up dollars and I will let it go. How large was VN's fund when he blew up in 87' then 98'? can someone post the numbers please. Then how large is his fund now? Anyone?

[/B][/QUOTE]

Does anyone have numbers for the above, would be cool to know some facts here :)
 
Quote from jem:

I do not recall if there was a lock up period. But it was closed in the late fall. So I suspect if you got in in sept or oct you got your money back before the end of the lockup.

Regarding trends. Being short oil is not the best example.

I would look to say of the other markets including the bund. See a good trend seems to happen when everyone is right for a while or some very large players are wrong.


What we seeing lately is very good trends. If someone refuses to acknowledge their current existence. They must have an agenda.
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jem,

with all due respect, why then are the trend funds experiencing such drawdowns at this time?? particullarly now when they ( trend funds) have the most money and resources available to them in history. something does not make sense.

my comment on my oil trade was meant to show that the supposed trend is irrelevent to the entry.

jay
 
Quote from jay gould:

jem,

with all due respect, why then are the trend funds experiencing such drawdowns at this time?? particularly now when they ( trend funds) have the most money and resources available to them in history. something does not make sense.

my comment on my oil trade was meant to show that the supposed trend is irrelevant to the entry.

jay
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Jay,

I'm not sure what you are implying with all this? Are you saying that there never will be another trend ever again? Do you think the dollar, oil, gold, indexes, metals, bonds and grains will never make a substantial move one direction or another ever again? Because that is what you are saying when you say trend following is dead.

Right now, all the products I just mentioned have been trading in a very tight whip saw trading range. All the trend following funds are getting chopped up slowly going back and forth. This is very common. It happened in the early 90's for about 2 years and it happened in the 80's. However, when the trends continued, all the trend following funds made new highs.

So the question is, when will the trends continue? I don't know the answer to that. My guess is we may still have some time to go.

But sooner or later, bonds will begin to selloff, the dollar will rally, indexes will breakout to the upside, gold and silver will probably trend lower and the these funds will kill it.

It's very disingenuous of you to pick on them while they are down. Now if these products were trending and these funds were getting killed, then you would have a valid point. Or if other trend following funds were doing well and JH was not, you would have a valid point. But all you are doing now is shouting at the rain. It would be as if I was pointing out that all the short only funds are doing poorly as the mkt makes new highs. Of course they are doing poorly, short only funds do well when the market goes down.

I think VN has had more drawdowns then JH has and certainly more violent.
As a naked option seller, VN is always one bad trade away from a blowup. We'll be sure to point it out to you the next time it happens.
 
Quote from PacksNBundles:

Jay,
.

It's very disingenuous of you to pick on them while they are down. Now if these products were trending and these funds were getting killed, then you would have a valid point. Or if other trend following funds were doing well and JH was not, you would have a valid point. But all you are doing now is shouting at the rain. It would be as if I was pointing out that all the short only funds are doing poorly as the mkt makes new highs. Of course they are doing poorly, short only funds do well when the market goes down
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thank you for the cogent post. my response was in response to jem's statement that there are very good trends currently.......

see my point ?

best,

JG
 
Quote from PacksNBundles:

Jay,

I'm not sure what you are implying with all this? Are you saying that there never will be another trend ever again? Do you think the dollar, oil, gold, indexes, metals, bonds and grains will never make a substantial move one direction or another ever again? Because that is what you are saying when you say trend following is dead.

Right now, all the products I just mentioned have been trading in a very tight whip saw trading range. All the trend following funds are getting chopped up slowly going back and forth. This is very common. It happened in the early 90's for about 2 years and it happened in the 80's. However, when the trends continued, all the trend following funds made new highs.

So the question is, when will the trends continue? I don't know the answer to that. My guess is we may still have some time to go.

But sooner or later, bonds will begin to selloff, the dollar will rally, indexes will breakout to the upside, gold and silver will probably trend lower and the these funds will kill it.

It's very disingenuous of you to pick on them while they are down. Now if these products were trending and these funds were getting killed, then you would have a valid point. Or if other trend following funds were doing well and JH was not, you would have a valid point. But all you are doing now is shouting at the rain. It would be as if I was pointing out that all the short only funds are doing poorly as the mkt makes new highs. Of course they are doing poorly, short only funds do well when the market goes down.

I think VN has had more drawdowns then JH has and certainly more violent.
As a naked option seller, VN is always one bad trade away from a blowup. We'll be sure to point it out to you the next time it happens.
More...

No there will never be another trend again.....Ever...:D

excellent post PacksNBundles..
..... you just described the logic of trendfollowing.....remember people, 95 % of trend following profits can usually come from 5 % of their trades. A new trends will develop and will eventually bring these funds to a new equity high....The problem is they must take all the trades since there is no way of knowing when or where the next trend will occur.

Nick
 
Quote from NKNY:



excellent post PacksNBundles..
..... you just described the logic of trendfollowing.....remember people, 95 % of trend following profits can usually come from 5 % of their trades. A new trends will develop and will eventually bring these funds to a new equity high....The problem is they must take all the trades since there is no way of knowing when or where the next trend will occur.

Nick
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exactamundo. there in is the inherent flaw in the trend approach for the average capitalized trader. it is my contention that it takes large sums of capital to properly diversify to catch the 5% of the time the trade is profitable--- and to withstand the drawdowns the trend followers say is part of their method.

once again, if there is no way of knowing if a trend will continue, and trend followers accept 35% plus drawdowns, what's the difference between "trend following" and buy and hold??

respectfully,

JG--financier
 
Quote from Maverick1:

You're challenge is meaningless, I'm surprised you didnt get the point of my previous point. Why don't you answer my question instead, which poses a real challenge in contrast? Show me dollar recovery returns vs blow up dollars and I will let it go. How large was VN's fund when he blew up in 87' then 98'? can someone post the numbers please. Then how large is his fund now? Anyone?

When you are investor, you don't give a hoot that your manager who has lost 50-100% of your money is now back on top. Means jack unless he makes up for the losses AND the opportunity cost of not being invested for a period of time leading into his eventual new fund start up. The odds of VN doing that are slim to none.
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How large was VN's fund when he blew up in 87' then 98'? can someone post the numbers please. Then how large is his fund now? Anyone?
 
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