John Henry--The Next Blow Up ??

[jay gould]

Quote from GetWhatUDeserve:

It depends on the beliefs you have about the markets. If you believe market behavior is purely random, then my discussion below does not apply. If you believe that then you are not alone. For example I had a college professor who stood on a soapbox for the Random Walk Hypothesis regarding the markets. I noticed over the years that while I would listen and discuss it with him, as I traded, I became more wealthy while he did not. Just food for thought.

you became wealthy and he did not......

that certainly could be attributed to random distribution and risk taking behavior, no ?? furthermore, obviously, the market is random within certain parameters.

otherwise, great post. your opinion, please--- is it prerequisite to have large sums of capital to properly execute and profit from the "trend trading" strategies?

thanks.

JG

JG

 

[Maverick1]

Quote from Steelhead:

avalanche, can you tell if this is marketspammer hiding behind yet another alias to throw dirt once again?

Instead of focusing on the guys who've already blown up or blown up twice, you get a bunch of clowns conjecturing on when a guy with a proven long term record is going to blow up. Priceless...

To the latter folks, I'd say, save yourself a couple of keystrokes willya, and come back when the guy has blown up please. Until you can back your statements with facts, don't expect to be taken seriously. If you want to do post mortems, VN has many case studies that may offer valuable insights into what NOT to do in trading

have a great day everyone

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from Maverick1:

Instead of focusing on the guys who've already blown up or blown up twice, you get a bunch of clowns conjecturing on when a guy with a proven long term record is going to blow up. Priceless...

To the latter folks, I'd say, save yourself a couple of keystrokes willya, and come back when the guy has blown up please. Until you can back your statements with facts, don't expect to be taken seriously. If you want to do post mortems, VN has many case studies that may offer valuable insights into what NOT to do in trading

have a great day everyone

Now that is a very good post.

 

[jay gould]

Quote from Thunderdog:

Now that is a very good post.

anticipating a funds / traders blow up has led to significant profits in the past...... I'll leave looking at the past to the trend traders.....

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from jay gould:

anticipating a funds / traders blow up has led to profits in the past...

Then, no doubt, VN has made you a very rich man. Share the wealth.

 

[jem]

I imagine a lot of funds are hurting lately Look at the price action in the different markets.

Bonds up. Oil UP stocks up Dollar up

And stuff like this has been going on for a few weeks. That is got to be hurting all the great macro thinker guys. Not just buffet.

add this to that gm deal.

I for one hope it teaches all the arbers and hedges a lesson about fading momentum moves.

 

[danoXP]

percentages ...

remember:

a 35% drawdown negates a 54% positive return

a 50% drawdown negates a 100% return

... and I think it was Warren Buffett who said "... if you are up 50% one year, up 50% again the next, and down 50% the third, you are doing worse than a Tbill..." (~4% cagr).

 

[Maverick1]

Quote from danoXP:

percentages ...

remember:

a 35% drawdown negates a 54% positive return

a 50% drawdown negates a 100% return

... and I think it was Warren Buffett who said "... if you are up 50% one year, up 50% again the next, and down 50% the third, you are doing worse than a Tbill..." (~4% cagr).

And I think it was Oscar the Grouch who said, if you have a 20 year track record of +15% or more, you are da man.

:eek:

 

[cable]

Quote from Maverick1:

And I think it was Oscar the Grouch who said, if you have a 20 year track record of +15% or more, you are da man.

:eek:

LOL!! Good point.

 

[yenzen]

Quote from Steelhead:

avalanche, can you tell if this is marketspammer hiding behind yet another alias to throw dirt once again?

of course its him.