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I didn't suggest it would be a landslide or an easy victory. I'm also not saying that I would prefer that he lose. Just doesn't seem that you or his other supporters are being realistic or objective. The groups of rock solid support aren't the advantage you think they are. All together...

Here you go, it was hard because they weren't in the same format. The colored graph is the Truman graph. Green = Approve Red = Disapprove The black line overlaid is Obama approval.

A point I forgot to mention was that, during Truman's re-election campaign there were many trying to force him aside for Eisenhower, and the only reason they didn't succeed was that Eisenhower wouldn't let them. After Truman's wildly unpopular second term, Eisenhower gets elected and goes on to...

I will grant you that he in fact did have a couple valleys that took him as low as Obama's valleys, so I will concede the point. But since this is a trading site, I will present the argument a different way. Take the Truman graph and the Obama graph and take the noise out of it through...

IMO, there is another element that shouldn't be forgotten. Why are such a disproportionate number of movie stars and entertainers liberal? It isn't because the market wants them to be liberal, but rather that "artists, musicians, thespians, etc.." tend to have personalities that favor...

Sure, but actually I am what most would consider a militant independent who thinks that partisan politics have destroyed this country. I'm just speaking in terms of what my own strategy would be if I were to compete against these guys. I don't think that either Obama or Romney would do a...

Sorry, poorly worded. I didn't mean to suggest that he has a disapproval rating of 60%, but that his approval rating was nearing 40%. The other part of the statement still holds true. No incumbent has ever won re-election with such low approval and such high disapproval.

Yep, latest poll just conducted yesterday has Romney with 22-point lead in Florida with almost all of that extra support coming from Newt. The ironic thing is that Newt will actually probably exceed expectations in South Carolina because of this and he will tell himself that it was the right...

Last I heard, about 60% of the country disagrees with that statement. he has the lowest approval and highest disapproval rating of any re-elected incumbent in history if I'm not mistaken.

Another thing that Obama supporters must consider is the amount of general dissatisfaction that the population has with the incumbent right now. It isn't necessarily Obama, but just whomever happens to be in power right now. If you are an Obama supporter, the polls comparing Obama to Ron...

IMO, doesn't matter in the end for most of those groups. The farther right is gonna vote GOP regardless of the nominee because they absolutely hate Obama. At least 90% of middle of the road repubs will do the same. Even though 40% of everyone identifies as independent, a huge portion of...

+1 The there is only a certain portion of the population that can be swayed, and it is a relatively small portion. Most people don't understand or even care what private equity companies do.

Sure, they will run some of them, but it has already been stated several times that they plan on purchasing 1/2 hour time slots to run it. Who decided that was worth it? I wouldn't spend a dime on anything but 1-minute commercials during "Biggest Loser", "Modern Family", etc... And I would...

Not just Ron Paul. Huntsman joined in yesterday too. Santorum almost got sucked into it, but now he is backtracking and defending Bain as well.

Nope, you missed the same point that Newt is missing. Romney already doesn't get the younger vote. Paul captures an amazing amount of them, but they are already Romney's worst block. He does very well with better educated voters, but the better educated voters in the GOP are exactly the...

Yep, the headlines will probably end up reading "Newts Plan for (Attempted) Murder-Suicide!" Whether Romney dies or simply comes out wounded is up for debate, but the suicide of Newt is all but assured running a message like that in the GOP. Would only work against a weak upstart like...

Depends on how well he does. If he flops from here out then I think you're right, he would probably endorse Gary Johnson or nobody. But if he does well and ends up with a voice at the convention it is a completely different story. His success is a double edged sword for his supporters. The...

I didn't say that he wouldn't like to win. Just that he knows that it is virtually impossible. He is much more pragmatic than his supporters give him credit for. I believe that he is more content to simply be heard than his supporters are. If a slightly younger and more financially connected...

In reality I think that the proportionality changes are overblown. There aren't that many states that changed, and the proportionality is not nearly as fair as it seems on the surface. For example, contrary to the hopes of many Paul supporters, it is very likely that he will get zero delegates...

I believe that Paul knows he will not win. His goal is to simply get enough support to gain a voice and change the narrative, which i think has always been his goal. I've always been convinced that he has only run for president out of feeling an obligation and not necessarily for the ego trip...